Will Datadog's Q4 2025 year-over-year revenue growth rate fall below 25%?

Management guided Q4 to $912M-$916M implying ~24% YoY, technically below the 25% threshold. However, the consistent guide-and-raise pattern (2-5pp beats each quarter of FY2025, guidance raised from 20% to 26% full-year) suggests the actual result will likely exceed guidance. A 2pp beat alone would push growth to ~26%, above the threshold. RPO growth of 53% YoY and non-AI usage acceleration to 20% (12-quarter high) provide fundamental support for a beat.

The tension between management's conservative Q4 guidance ($914M midpoint = ~23.8% YoY) and the established guide-and-raise pattern is the crux. The 25% threshold requires $922.5M in Q4 revenue — only $6.5M above guidance top-end of $916M. While prior beats of 2-5pp are encouraging, Q4 faces the toughest comp (Q4 2024 was 26% growth) and the OpenAI concentration risk (5-10% of revenue) creates asymmetric downside. The insider selling pattern adds marginal concern.

The analysis facts strongly suggest a beat of guidance is likely, making sub-25% growth improbable but not impossible. The $922.5M threshold for 25% growth is only ~$8.5M above guidance midpoint — and management has beaten by roughly $15-35M equivalent each quarter. New logo bookings more than doubled YoY, non-AI usage hit a 12-quarter high at 20%, and RPO grew 53%. The breadth of growth acceleration across non-AI customers provides a strong floor.

Management guided below 25% but has consistently sandbagged. The 2-5pp beat pattern over four consecutive quarters is strong E3-level evidence. To stay below 25%, Datadog would need to break this pattern for the first time in FY2025. While Q4 has the toughest comp and OpenAI concentration adds risk, the acceleration in non-AI usage (20% YoY, 12-quarter high) and RPO growth (53% YoY) make a significant miss of the beat pattern unlikely.

I give more weight to the guidance itself and the structural risks. Management guided $912M-$916M for a reason — they see the Q4 landscape. The threshold requires $922.5M which is above even the top of guidance. While the beat pattern is real, the OpenAI contract dynamics (estimated 5-10% of revenue) and the tough Q4 2024 comp could compress the magnitude of the beat. Usage-based model sensitivity means cloud spending dynamics in Oct-Dec 2025 are the unknown variable.

The data is overwhelmingly suggestive of a guidance beat. Every quarter of FY2025 saw a 2-5pp beat. The accelerating trend in non-AI usage (management noted it continued into October), RPO at 53% YoY growth, and new logo bookings more than doubling all point to robust Q4 demand. The $922.5M threshold is achievable with a modest ~1pp beat on top of guidance top-end. Even accounting for OpenAI risk and the tough comp, the convergence of leading indicators makes sub-25% growth the less likely outcome.

Guidance says ~24% but the beat pattern (2-5pp every quarter) suggests likely above 25%. The threshold of $922.5M is only ~$8.5M above guidance midpoint. RPO growth of 53% and non-AI usage at 12-quarter high support a beat. Assigning 40% to sub-25% growth.

The guide-and-raise pattern is the dominant signal. Management raised FY2025 guidance 4 times from 20% to 26%. Beating Q4 by even 2pp on the guided ~24% puts growth at 26%, well above the 25% threshold. Non-AI usage acceleration and doubled new logos add confidence. OpenAI risk exists but is a single-digit percentage of revenue.

Guidance at $912M-$916M implies ~24% growth, below threshold. Historical beat pattern is strong at 2-5pp. But Q4 has the toughest comp and usage-based model adds volatility. Balanced assessment: slightly more likely growth exceeds 25% than falls below, but it is close to the threshold.