Will three or more additional US states enact agricultural right-to-repair legislation by December 31, 2026?

Q1 FY2026 earnings (Feb 19, 2026) contained zero right-to-repair or state legislative commentary. This is a null update — no new information favoring either direction. The structural picture is unchanged: 5 state FTC co-plaintiffs, multiple states with pending legislation, Moat Mapper's HIGH-likelihood but 1-2 year timeline. The only time-based signal is that we are now approximately 7 weeks into the primary legislative session window (Jan-May/June) with no reported enactments. This is mildly bearish at the margin given the Jan-May/June session window, but the effect is small. Three states enacting agricultural RTR by Dec 31, 2026 remains a high bar for the same structural reasons as before. Anchoring very close to prior 0.19, with a slight tick down for calendar attrition.

The absence of any RTR commentary from Deere management on the Q1 call is informative in a subtle way: if state legislative sessions were producing active bill progress that management found material, they would likely reference it or address it on the call. Silence does not mean absence, but it is consistent with no imminent legislative closures. The calendar has advanced: with many state sessions running January through May or June, the 2026 window for floor votes and governor signatures is narrowing. The Moat Mapper's 1-2 year timeline from Feb 2026 means enactment could extend into 2027. Nudging down from 0.19 to 0.17 to reflect the modest calendar attrition signal without overweighting the earnings silence.

The Q1 earnings update is a near-zero information event for this market. No RTR-specific news, no state legislation commentary, no change in the FTC case trajectory. The Regulatory Cascade tail risk scenario at 8-15% is unaltered. The core difficulty of the question — three states clearing committee, both chambers, and governor signature for agricultural RTR in a single calendar year — is unchanged. The Black Swan Beacon's 15-25% for 5+ states remains the upper bound anchor. Trimming marginally from 0.19 to 0.18 acknowledges that two months have elapsed in the legislative calendar with no enactments, representing mild attrition of the available window. The underlying probability is still dominated by structural legislative barriers rather than calendar position.

No RTR legislative content in Q1 FY2026 earnings. The calendar factor is more material to my assessment than to opus: most state legislatures run Jan-May or Jan-June. We are now past mid-February with no reported agricultural RTR enactments. For three states to meet the threshold, all three would need to complete the full legislative process (committee, both chambers, governor) before their respective session ends. That process typically takes 3-6 months for contested legislation. The window is tightening. Deere's voluntary Customer Service ADVISOR program continues to provide political cover for legislators who want to avoid a confrontation with equipment manufacturers. Downward revision from 0.17 (Sonnet median in Feb 12 batch) to 0.16.

Updating from the Feb 12 sonnet run 2 (0.15). The structural case for sub-20% remains intact. The Q1 earnings non-event reinforces that this is not a near-term catalyst story. Legislative session mechanics remain the binding constraint: three states must each independently clear committee, floor votes in both chambers, and governor signature before Dec 31, 2026. Many agricultural states have strong equipment manufacturer lobbying infrastructure. The FTC case denial of MTD was last year's catalyst — any new state legislative momentum would have had to emerge by now to close by year-end. The staleness of state bill tracker data remains the key uncertainty. LOW confidence because current bill status is unknown; could be higher if any states have bills already passed one chamber.

Holding near the Feb 12 sonnet run 3 estimate (0.21 reduced to 0.18). The Black Swan Beacon's 15-25% for 5+ states continues to anchor my 3-state estimate above 15%. Some states may have bills that advanced through committee before the earnings date — the absence of public commentary on Deere's call does not mean no legislative activity. The political environment has not degraded: the FTC case is ongoing, the DOJ supported the private class action, and farmer advocacy groups remain active. However, the one-way attrition of time in the legislative calendar is real. The resolution window has shrunk from ~11 months (Feb 12) to ~10.5 months (Feb 19), with the primary enactment window (state sessions) shorter still.

Q1 earnings had no RTR content — no update to the structural picture. The political momentum from the FTC case (MTD denied June 2025, DOJ support) and the five state co-plaintiffs provides a backdrop that can independently drive state legislative action. The Black Swan Beacon's 15-25% for 5+ states still supports a reading above 0.15 for the easier 3-state threshold. Calendar attrition is modest at this stage. Three states could still enact before session ends if bills are already in committee. Holding near 0.20, the upper end of the prior consensus range.

Time passing without news is a soft negative signal. Legislative sessions are underway; if agricultural RTR bills were gaining traction, we would expect some public reporting or advocacy group commentary. The absence of earnings commentary from Deere reinforces the quiet-on-the-legislative-front reading. Nudging down from haiku run 2 prior estimate (0.16) — holding steady at 0.16. The 1-2 year Moat Mapper timeline continues to favor 2027 as the more likely enactment window. Equipment manufacturer lobbying in agricultural states remains the dominant barrier to enactment in any individual state.

Anchoring close to the prior aggregate of 0.19. The Q1 earnings call is an information null for this market — no RTR mentions, no regulatory commentary, no competitive position changes. The underlying drivers (FTC case, state co-plaintiffs, pending legislation, farmer advocacy) are intact. The slight downward revision to 0.18 reflects only the modest calendar attrition of two months elapsed in the legislative session window. The range of outcomes remains wide due to data staleness on actual bill status. If any state has already passed one chamber, probability would be materially higher; if sessions are winding down with no floor votes, materially lower.