RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

DE Forecast Markets

Deere & Company

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
31%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Feb 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will the FTC reach a consent decree or settlement with Deere on right-to-repair by December 31, 2026?

Active
32%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Deere report FY2026 net income below $4.0 billion (the low end of current guidance)?

Active
9%
Likely No
28%9%after Q1 FY2026 Earnings
96% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Deere Financial Services 30+ day delinquency rates increase by more than 25% from Q4 FY2025 levels by Q3 FY2026?

Active
13%
Likely No
22%13%after Q1 FY2026 earnings — FS credit quality explicitly improving
97% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will any major credit rating agency place Deere on negative outlook or downgrade its senior unsecured rating by December 31, 2026?

Active
10%
Likely No
17%10%after Q1 FY2026 Earnings
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will large agricultural equipment (>100 HP tractor) used pricing indices decline more than 10% from February 2026 levels by August 2026?

Active
13%
Likely No
22%13%after Q1 FY2026 Earnings
97% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will three or more additional US states enact agricultural right-to-repair legislation by December 31, 2026?

Active
18%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Deere increase its quarterly dividend per share at any point during FY2026 (November 2025 through October 2026)?

Active
87%
Likely Yes
78%87%after Q1 FY2026 Earnings
96% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Deere report precision agriculture technology adoption or engagement metrics showing growth acceleration in any FY2026 earnings disclosure?

Resolved
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Feb 19, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Sep 15, 2026
Will large agricultural equipment (>100 HP tractor) used pricing indices decline more than 10% from February 2026 levels by August 2026?
Prediction: 13%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Deere Financial Services 30+ day delinquency rates increase by more than 25% from Q4 FY2025 levels by Q3 FY2026?
Prediction: 13%
Nov 15, 2026
Will Deere increase its quarterly dividend per share at any point during FY2026 (November 2025 through October 2026)?
Prediction: 87%
Dec 15, 2026
Will Deere report FY2026 net income below $4.0 billion (the low end of current guidance)?
Prediction: 9%
Dec 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Deere report precision agriculture technology adoption or engagement metrics showing growth acceleration in any FY2026 earnings disclosure?
YES
Jan 15, 2027
Will any major credit rating agency place Deere on negative outlook or downgrade its senior unsecured rating by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 10%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the FTC reach a consent decree or settlement with Deere on right-to-repair by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 32%
Jan 31, 2027
Will three or more additional US states enact agricultural right-to-repair legislation by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 18%