Will Deere report precision agriculture technology adoption or engagement metrics showing growth acceleration in any FY2026 earnings disclosure?

The resolution bar is relatively low: 'growth acceleration in ANY FY2026 earnings disclosure' across 4 quarterly reports. FY2025 metrics showed strong progression even during a 25% revenue decline trough. If FY2026 sees any cyclical recovery, equipment replacement demand rebounds, mechanically accelerating technology adoption since new equipment ships precision-ag-enabled. The 'or described by management as exceeding internal targets' clause adds another pathway -- management has been consistently promoting the technology thesis with R&D at record $2.31B (5.1% of revenue). Multiple metrics (Operations Center acres, Precision Essentials, JDLink Boost, See & Spray, harvest automation) across 4 quarters create many opportunities for at least one acceleration.

Resolution requires YoY growth RATE acceleration, not just absolute growth. FY2025 already showed exceptional growth rates: JDLink Boost 567% (1,200 to 8,000+), Precision Essentials 167% (9K to 24K+). Accelerating from these rates is mathematically difficult due to base effects. However, Deere could introduce new metrics not previously disclosed (e.g., subscription/recurring revenue from precision ag, currently not disclosed), making fresh YoY comparison possible. The 4 quarterly windows and breadth of metrics tracked (8+ categories) give multiple chances. Cyclical recovery from FY2025 trough would mechanically boost connected machine counts through new equipment deliveries.

This is partly a question about management communication strategy. Deere management has been aggressively promoting the precision ag thesis with R&D at record 5.1% of revenue -- they need to demonstrate returns. Management controls which metrics to highlight, whether to introduce new metrics, and how to characterize performance vs 'internal targets.' The easy YoY comparison base from FY2025's trough year (revenue -25%) means FY2026 H2 metrics will look favorable. The FTC right-to-repair case is unlikely to resolve within FY2026. Base case: at least one quarter shows at least one metric accelerating, especially given the favorable cyclical comparison base.

This is a fairly straightforward YES lean. FY2025 was a 25% revenue decline year, yet tech metrics grew across the board. FY2026 is expected to see stabilization or modest recovery. When growing from a trough, adoption metrics almost mechanically accelerate: new equipment ships precision-ag-enabled, the YoY base is depressed, and management highlights positive data points. With 8+ metrics tracked across 4 quarters, the probability that ZERO show acceleration in ANY quarter is low. The resolution also includes management describing metrics as 'exceeding internal targets' -- a subjective criterion management can influence.

The resolution requires growth ACCELERATION, not just growth -- the growth rate must increase. FY2025 metrics already showed exceptional growth (JDLink Boost 567%, Precision Essentials 167%). Accelerating from those rates is mathematically hard. For Operations Center engaged acres (~10% growth in FY2025), acceleration means >10% in FY2026, which is plausible with cyclical recovery. See & Spray take rate on FY2026 early orders is explicitly 'at similar level to FY2025' -- flat, not accelerating. However, new metric disclosures (e.g., subscription/recurring revenue from precision ag, not currently disclosed) could show strong growth from a small base. Over 4 quarters, more likely than not that at least one metric shows acceleration.

The breadth of the resolution criteria is the key factor. It's not asking about one specific metric -- it covers ANY metric across ANY quarter. Deere tracks connected machines, Operations Center acres, highly engaged acres, Precision Essentials orders, JDLink Boost orders, See & Spray acreage, harvest automation take rates, and subscription attach rates. That's 8+ metrics across 4 quarters = 32+ data points. For YES, only one needs to show acceleration. For NO, ALL must show flat or declining. Even random variation would produce some acceleration for some metrics in some quarters. The main NO scenario is a deep prolonged ag downturn where farmers aggressively defer all technology spending -- but Deere's tech metrics grew through FY2025's trough, making this unlikely.

Four quarterly earnings reports, 8+ technology metrics, only need one acceleration instance. FY2025 trough (revenue -25%) creates easy YoY comparisons for FY2026. Management has strong incentive to highlight positive tech data given record $2.31B R&D investment. New product launches could generate new metrics with no prior-year comparison challenges.

FY2025 showed strong growth across all tech metrics despite revenue decline. The question is whether growth ACCELERATES from already-high rates. Base effects from JDLink Boost (567% growth) and Precision Essentials (167%) make acceleration harder mathematically. But newer product categories (autonomy features, subscription services) could show early-stage acceleration. Management typically introduces new metrics to demonstrate progress on the technology thesis.

Broad resolution criteria covering any metric, any quarter, plus subjective 'exceeding targets' clause. Technology metrics grew through the worst of the FY2025 cyclical trough. Any cyclical recovery in FY2026 would mechanically boost adoption through new equipment deliveries. Strong YES lean, tempered by risk of across-the-board growth deceleration from high FY2025 base rates.