Will Deere increase its quarterly dividend per share at any point during FY2026 (November 2025 through October 2026)?

Buyback resumption at ~$750M in Q1 is the single most important data point in this update. The previous prediction weighted buyback pause as a mild negative signal; that signal has now reversed. Management would not resume buybacks if they had any concern about cash flow adequacy for dividends. NI guidance raised to $4.5-5.0B vs. prior $4.0-4.75B puts the payout ratio at ~22-26% at the midpoint -- even more room for an increase. The Perfect Storm tail scenario was the primary threat; with guidance raise and strong Q1 execution ($1.246B NI ahead of plan), that probability has compressed to 3-8%. The interim CFO is Jepsen, who served as CFO 2019-2022 and knows Deere's capital return philosophy intimately -- the governance gap risk is 2-5%, down from 5-10%. Combined NO probability: ~3-6% severe stress + ~3-5% governance delay = ~8-11%, implying YES probability of ~89-92%. I weight toward 88% given some residual uncertainty about the remaining FY2026 ag cycle and tariff trajectory.

The upgrade triggers listed in the original prediction context have fired: NI guidance above $4.375B midpoint, Equipment Ops cash flow guidance above $4.5B, and buyback resumption. However, I want to be careful not to over-update. The question still covers the entire FY2026 through October 2026 -- there are seven months remaining. Tariff escalation risk has not disappeared; the ag cycle remains in trough territory; and the governance gap, while reduced, is not zero with an interim CFO in place. The payout ratio argument remains compelling (22-26% at new guidance midpoint), and the 5-year streak with 14% CAGR creates substantial reputational cost to freezing. My NO probability: ~5% severe stress (down from ~12%), ~4% governance delay, ~2% other = ~11% total. YES probability ~89%, but I discount to 84% to reflect that Q1 earnings enthusiasm can be front-run and the remaining period has meaningful macro uncertainty.

The combination of buyback resumption plus NI guidance raise is extremely informative. These are not independent signals -- management is simultaneously allocating $750M to buybacks AND raising the earnings floor by $500M. This strongly implies management views FY2026 cash flows as tracking well above the levels needed to defend the dividend. The 5-year streak at 14% CAGR means the board has an established pattern; Jepsen as interim CFO was part of the team that built that pattern. The Perfect Storm scenario requiring NO has compressed to 3-8% probability. At 90% I am essentially saying: there is only a 10% chance that (a) severe ag/macro stress hits hard enough to threaten dividends OR (b) the board deviates from 5 consecutive years of increases despite comfortable payout ratios. That 10% feels right given residual tail risks.

Post-Q1 earnings, the bear case for this market has materially weakened. The previous prediction assigned ~22% NO probability -- roughly 10% severe stress, 10% governance gap, 2% other. Both of those risks have been reduced: Perfect Storm is now 3-8% (not 8-15%), governance gap is 2-5% (not 5-10%) because Jepsen replaces Campbell as interim CFO. Buyback resumption at $750M is a direct management signal that they view cash flows as adequate for capital returns -- this does not happen if management is worried about needing to freeze dividends. I model NO probability at ~6-8% severe stress + ~3% governance delay = ~9-11%, implying ~89-91% YES. I settle at 87% as my central estimate, leaving a modest buffer for macro developments through October 2026.

The earnings delta is uniformly positive but I want to evaluate whether it is as transformative as it appears. The NI guidance raise from $4.0-4.75B to $4.5-5.0B is meaningful -- the lower bound rose $500M, which is more important than the upper bound shift. The lower bound is what matters for dividend sustainability, and $4.5B NI with ~$1.1B annual dividends implies a ~24% payout ratio even in the worst-case guidance scenario. Buyback resumption at $750M in Q1 is a strong signal, but buybacks and dividends are still treated differently -- management explicitly distinguishes them. The governance gap closure is real: Jepsen was CFO through the period when the current dividend growth trajectory was established. I keep my estimate slightly conservative at 85% to reflect that I am updating on one quarter of data and the question still has seven months to run.

The prior prediction was labeled 'consensusFragile' because a single material negative event could shift the entire distribution. Q1 FY2026 earnings was exactly that kind of material event -- but it was positive, not negative. The distribution should shift up, not just fractionally but meaningfully. The three prior upgrade triggers (NI at guidance midpoint, cash flow above $4.5B, buyback resumption) were presented as conditions that would increase the probability; all three have now been met. I think 89% is appropriate: it represents a ~11 percentage point increase from the prior mean of 0.779, proportional to the strength of the signals. The primary remaining risk is macro deterioration through October 2026, which is real but manageable given the structural buffer in the payout ratio.

Q1 FY2026 delivered strong execution with NI of $1.246B ahead of plan. Management raised full-year NI guidance by $500M at the floor and resumed buybacks at $750M. The 5-year dividend increase streak, conservative 22-26% payout ratio at new guidance, and Jepsen's familiarity with the capital return policy all point strongly toward YES. Perfect Storm tail risk compressed to 3-8%; governance gap to 2-5%. Combined NO probability approximately 8-10%. YES probability 88-90%, settling at 88%.

Positive earnings delta is clear. Buybacks resumed at $750M, NI guidance raised, cash flow guidance raised $500M to $4.5-5.5B. The prior NO thesis depended on either severe stress or governance gap; both have been reduced. However, the ag cycle remains in trough and macro uncertainty has not disappeared. I weight this conservatively among the ensemble at 83% -- the signals are positive but seven months remain in FY2026 and external shocks are unpredictable.

Post-Q1 update increases conviction for YES. The NI guidance raise to $4.5-5.0B means Deere now expects to earn roughly $16.65-18.50 per share -- the annual dividend would need to be very modest to not increase. The 5-year streak with non-discretionary treatment by management combined with Jepsen's institutional knowledge makes a governance-related freeze very unlikely (2-5%). Severe stress scenario probability is now 3-8% at the outer range. I estimate 86% YES probability, reflecting strong positive signals with modest residual risk for the remaining 7 months of FY2026.