Will the FTC reach a consent decree or settlement with Deere on right-to-repair by December 31, 2026?

Q1 FY2026 earnings call contained zero FTC or right-to-repair commentary. This absence is itself informative: management did not choose to proactively address the lawsuit even as it proceeds through discovery, suggesting no imminent settlement is on the horizon. The underlying case dynamics are unchanged -- MTD denied June 2025, discovery ongoing, 5 state co-plaintiffs, DOJ support. The timeline constraint remains the binding factor: resolving a complex antitrust case with 5 state AGs in 23 months from filing is fast by FTC historical standards. Probability held at the prior estimate; no directional information in the earnings call.

The absence of FTC discussion on the Q1 call is a mild negative signal. Companies approaching settlement often begin telegraphing resolution in earnings commentary -- the complete silence suggests no deal is imminent. Additionally, Deere's improving financial position (if Q1 results were strong) marginally reduces their settlement urgency: a financially healthy Deere can sustain multi-year litigation costs without the balance sheet pressure that sometimes accelerates settlement. Multi-party negotiations with 5 state AGs remain the primary structural obstacle. Probability nudged slightly below prior.

The prior assessment correctly identified the deal zone: Deere can compartmentalize repair diagnostics from precision ag, and a narrow remedy preserves the moat. That structural reality is unchanged. The Q1 earnings call silence does not rule out background settlement negotiations -- these are typically not disclosed until a consent decree is announced. The passage of one additional week pushes the case ~1 week further through discovery, marginally increasing the chance that both parties have enough information to assess exposure. The regulatory cascade tail risk scenario (8-15%) is unchanged. Maintaining a slight upward lean reflecting the deal-zone existence.

No new FTC information from earnings. The case is tracking on the same timeline as the prior assessment: discovery phase following the June 2025 MTD denial. The binding constraint remains whether discovery can be completed and settlement terms negotiated before December 31, 2026. That's approximately 18 months from discovery start -- aggressive for a case involving a large industrial company with extensive proprietary records and 5 state co-plaintiffs. Probability essentially unchanged from 0.33, with minor downward adjustment reflecting that each passing week without a signal is a small update toward a longer timeline.

The multi-pressure-vector argument remains intact: FTC + 5 states + DOJ + private class action. Deere is simultaneously managing Q1 earnings, tariff headwinds ($1.2B), and multiple legal fronts. The MTD denial validated FTC's legal theory, which creates ongoing board-level pressure to resolve rather than face uncertain trial outcome. Deere's improving financial position is genuinely ambiguous -- it could mean they can afford to fight longer, but it also means the aftermarket revenue they're protecting is more valuable in an improving cycle, which increases the cost of a broad adverse ruling. Probability maintained near prior.

The absence of any FTC commentary on the Q1 call is the most significant new data point -- and it points slightly bearish. Management typically surfaces material litigation when it's approaching resolution, as part of disclosure obligations and investor expectation-setting. The fact that it wasn't raised at all suggests the case is in the routine discovery phase with no acceleration. The 5-state AG co-plaintiff structure inherently requires coordination across 6 governmental entities for any settlement, each with independent political considerations. Settlement by December 2026 looks more likely in 2027 given standard timelines.

No FTC commentary on Q1 earnings call. Discovery ongoing. 5 state AG co-plaintiffs. FTC antitrust cases rarely settle within 2 years from filing. Deere's improving financial position reduces settlement urgency. December 2026 deadline requires resolution in ~6 months from now -- unlikely given where discovery stands.

Prior estimate was 0.33. No new information in Q1 earnings call. Slight downward drift from week of silence. FTC antitrust cases take 2-3 years from filing on average. This case is ~13 months old. Discovery phase for large industrial company with proprietary diagnostic systems takes time. Multi-party settlement negotiations are slow. 2027 remains more likely resolution.

MTD denial and multi-pressure vectors still apply. Deere voluntary concessions show negotiation willingness. But no new information from Q1 earnings. Narrow remedy deal zone exists but parties need discovery to complete before assessing exposure. Timeline is tight for December 2026 resolution.