Will Greenstone produce less than 110,000 oz in H1 2026?

The question asks if Greenstone will produce LESS than 110,000 oz in H1 2026 — a downside scenario. Annual guidance is 250,000-300,000 oz, so H1 production of 110,000 oz would be only 40% of the midpoint. Greenstone has shown consistent ramp-up improvement: 17% → 28% → 36% → 50% of days above nameplate. At 50% of days above nameplate in Q1 2026 and improving trend, quarterly production should be running at 55,000-70,000 oz range. Two quarters at that rate would yield 110,000-140,000 oz in H1. The question is whether Q1 was weaker (early ramp-up) and Q2 catches up. The improving throughput trajectory strongly suggests 110,000 oz is achievable.

110,000 oz in H1 represents ~60-65 oz/day over ~180 days, which is well within capability for a mine ramping to 300,000 oz/yr nameplate. The arsenic-grade relationship flagged in the dossier could reduce recoveries at higher grades, which is a risk factor. However, even at reduced recovery rates, the throughput improvements (50% of days above nameplate) suggest production should comfortably exceed 110,000 oz in H1. The main risk would be an extended unplanned shutdown — equipment failure, environmental incident, or labor disruption — which is a low probability but non-zero risk.

The H1 2026 period partially overlaps with the data we already have — Q1 2026 throughput data shows 50% of days above nameplate, which is the best quarter yet. Even if Q1 production was slightly below the half-year run rate needed, Q2 should more than compensate given the improving trajectory. The 110,000 oz threshold is intentionally set as a warning level, not a base case expectation. Falling below it would require a significant operational setback that the committee did not identify as probable.

Greenstone's ramp-up trajectory is clearly positive. 50% of days above nameplate in Q1 2026 means the mine is running well above the threshold needed to produce 110,000 oz in a half year. This is a relatively easy bar to clear unless something goes materially wrong. The only scenarios where production falls this short are an extended shutdown or a previously unidentified metallurgical problem.

While the trajectory is positive, ramp-ups are inherently uncertain. The 50% of days above nameplate means 50% of days were BELOW nameplate — there's still significant variability. The arsenic-grade relationship creates a headwind on higher grades. I weight ramp-up uncertainty slightly higher than other models — mines in ramp-up can have setbacks. But 110,000 oz is still a low threshold given the improving data, so probability of missing remains below 20%.

The data supports continued improvement at Greenstone. From 17% to 50% of days above nameplate over 12 months is genuine operational progress. At this trajectory, Q2 should be even better than Q1. Missing 110,000 oz would represent a meaningful regression from the established trend, which while possible is unlikely without a specific identified cause. No such cause was flagged by the committee.

Greenstone ramping well — 50% days above nameplate in Q1 2026. 110,000 oz in H1 is a low threshold for a 300K/yr mine. Should easily exceed unless major setback. Low probability of missing.

Ramp-ups carry inherent risk. Arsenic-grade issue could limit production. But improving trajectory from 17% to 50% above nameplate makes sub-110K unlikely. Slightly higher than minimum to account for ramp-up uncertainty.

At 50% of days above nameplate in Q1 and improving, Greenstone should produce well above 110,000 oz in H1 2026. This is a downside threshold designed to flag problems, not a likely outcome. Very low probability.