Will FSM report any material security-related production disruption at Seguela or Diamba Sud in 2026?

Cote d'Ivoire has been remarkably stable compared to its Sahelian neighbors. President Ouattara's re-election provides political continuity. The Ivorian security forces have been proactive in border defense, and the southern regions where mines operate are well-separated from the northern border areas of concern. Senegal is similarly stable with established democratic traditions. Fortuna's Seguela mine has operated without security incidents through the entire Sahel crisis period (2020-2025). The probability of a material 7+ day disruption is low but non-zero given regional dynamics.

While Cote d'Ivoire is stable, the Sahel security situation continues to deteriorate. JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate) and ISGS have expanded operations southward. The northern Ivorian border has seen sporadic incursions. Mining companies in the region have experienced attacks and disruptions — notably Endeavour Mining's Wahgnion mine in Burkina Faso. However, Fortuna's sites are in southern/central Cote d'Ivoire and western Senegal, further from the conflict zone than most at-risk mines. I weight this at ~12% for a material 7+ day disruption, mostly reflecting the regional contagion tail risk.

The resolution requires a disclosure of production suspension, force majeure, or material security incident lasting 7+ days. This is a high bar — it requires not just an incident but a sustained disruption. Fortuna sold Yaramoko in Burkina Faso precisely because of security deterioration, demonstrating risk awareness. The remaining West African operations are in the two most stable countries in the region. At Diamba Sud, which is pre-development, even a security scare wouldn't constitute a 'production disruption' since there's no production to disrupt. This effectively means only Seguela triggers a YES resolution, narrowing the probability.

Security risk in West Africa is inherently difficult to predict. While base rates favor stability (no incidents in 5+ years of Seguela operation), the regional security environment is deteriorating. The question covers a 9-month window for 'any material disruption' at two sites. Low-probability events over longer periods compound. I also note that the resolution criteria include 'evacuation of personnel' which could be triggered by a regional security scare even without a direct attack on Fortuna's operations. This broadens the definition. I assign 12% with low confidence due to fundamental unpredictability.

I want to give more weight to the tail risk here than other models. The Sahel crisis has consistently surprised on the downside — the fall of three governments (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) in coups was not widely predicted. Each expansion of instability seemed unlikely until it happened. While Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal have stronger institutions, the assumption that 'it can't happen here' has been proven wrong repeatedly in the region. Mining operations are visible targets that generate controversy (land rights, water use, employment). A 15% probability accounts for known unknowns and the consistent under-estimation of West African political risk.

Balancing two forces: (1) Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal's demonstrated stability and institutional strength, and (2) the unpredictable nature of security events in a region with active insurgencies nearby. Fortuna's proactive risk management (selling Yaramoko, engaging with government officials) suggests they are well-positioned to manage and respond to threats. But risk management doesn't eliminate risk. I settle at ~11%, acknowledging that security tail risks are genuinely uncertain and historical base rates may under-count emerging threats.

Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal are stable. Seguela has operated without incidents for years. Regional security risk exists but is concentrated further north. Low probability but not negligible.

Security events are unpredictable by nature. 9-month window is long. Personnel evacuation criteria broadens the definition. Sahel instability continues to expand. Slightly above 10%.

Base case is continued stability. Fortuna exited highest-risk jurisdiction (Burkina Faso). Southern Cote d'Ivoire is well-separated from conflict zones. Low probability tail risk at ~9%.