Will Seguela produce at least 160,000 oz of gold in FY2026?

Seguela produced 152,420 oz in FY2025, exceeding upper guidance by 4%. This was the second consecutive year of outperformance. The 160Koz threshold is the low end of FY2026 guidance (160-180K). Management has a strong track record of meeting or exceeding Seguela guidance. The mine is a mature open-pit operation with established mining plans and ore characterization. Reserves of 1.5Moz support multi-year production at this level. The plant at 1.75Mtpa is already proven at these throughput levels. Expansion to 2.2-2.5Mtpa would provide upside. The main risk is grade variability or unexpected pit wall issues, but the established outperformance pattern suggests conservative mine planning.

The 160Koz target requires ~5% growth over FY2025's 152,420 oz. This is modest growth well within the operational capacity of the mine. Throughput expansion from current 1.75Mtpa is a potential upside. The question is whether any one-off events could disrupt — regional security (addressed in other market, assessed as low probability), equipment failure, or grade issues. Seguela's cash cost of $679/oz suggests excellent geological characteristics. Open-pit mining at this scale is operationally predictable. I give 75% probability, discounting for generic operational risk (weather, equipment, grade) but recognizing the strong historical track record.

Management guided 160-180Koz knowing the FY2025 outperformance pattern. If they were uncertain about achieving 160K, they would have widened the range or lowered the bottom. The fact that guidance starts at 160K after delivering 152K with outperformance suggests high internal confidence. The Sunbird underground development adds production upside if it advances on schedule. Mine-sequence optimization in the open pit continues to improve. The most likely outcome is production between 165-175Koz, well above the 160K threshold.

Strong track record at Seguela — exceeded guidance twice. However, mining production has inherent variability. Grade can fluctuate as the pit deepens and encounters different geological zones. The expansion study may involve temporary throughput disruptions if equipment modifications are made during the year. West African royalties increase with gold price, which doesn't affect production directly but creates pressure for higher grades that may not always be achievable. I assess 72% — high probability of meeting guidance but with recognition that single-asset production targets always carry execution risk.

I want to consider the base rate of mining companies meeting their production guidance. Industry-wide, gold miners meet or exceed guidance roughly 60-70% of the time. Seguela has outperformed this base rate, but regression to the mean is a factor. The 160Koz threshold is modest (5% above FY2025 actual), which helps. But mining production guidance misses are common due to unexpected geology, weather, equipment, or labor issues. Fortuna's own Lindero miss in FY2025 (6% below guidance) demonstrates that even this company isn't immune to production surprises.

Seguela-specific factors dominate over base rates. The mine has a proven geological model, consistent outperformance, and a management team with deep familiarity. The reserves (1.5Moz) are more than adequate — no reserve depletion risk. The Kingfisher and Sunbird deposits provide additional ore sources if the main pit underperforms. I give 74% probability, reflecting strong operational fundamentals with a discount for generic production risk.

Exceeded guidance 2 years running. Low-end threshold at 160Koz. Proven operation. Strong track record. ~76% probability.

Mining has inherent operational risks. Grade variability and equipment issues can cause misses. But Seguela's track record is strong. Moderate-high probability at 72%.

5% growth over FY2025 actual is modest. Management guided with confidence. Multiple ore sources available. Strong probability of achieving 160Koz threshold.