GEVActive

Will GEV's book-to-bill ratio remain above 1.5x through H1 2026?

Resolves July 31, 2026(70d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

90%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedInvalid Date

Prediction History

Initial

73%

Apr 5

+17pp

Current

90%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)

Q1 2026 book-to-bill printed ~1.96x (orders $18.3B / revenue $9.34B); FY guide raised; backlog +$13B QoQ to $163B. Well above 1.5x threshold with ample cushion for Q2 resolution.

Why This Question Matters

The Myth Meter flagged an unresolved debate: is the 2x book-to-bill a demand signal or a supply constraint signal? Maintaining above 1.5x confirms demand outpacing capacity growth. Declining toward 1.0x would signal either demand cooling (bearish for growth narrative) or conversion acceleration (potentially bullish for near-term revenue). The direction of causation determines whether the narrative gap widens or narrows.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 86% – 93%Aggregate: 90%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

92%

Q1 2026 book-to-bill printed at ~1.96x (orders $18.3B / revenue $9.34B). Resolution measures TTM orders-to-revenue at Q2 2026 reporting. For the ratio to fall to 1.5x or below requires a dramatic Q2 reversal — Q2 orders would need to collapse to roughly $5-6B or Q2 revenue would need to approach $15B+. Neither is consistent with management's raised FY guide, $163B backlog, or the $2.4B data-center Electrification pipeline. Very high probability of YES.

Q1 2026 book-to-bill ~1.96xTotal backlog $163B (+$13B QoQ)Raised FY26 guide consistent with order momentumData center Electrification orders $2.4B in Q1 alone exceed all of 2025

opusRun 2

90%

The TTM calculation mechanics matter. If we assume trailing-four-quarters orders and revenue starting at Q1 2026 end, the Q1 ratio is roughly 1.9x (using the mix of stronger FY25 back-half + Q1 2026). For this to slip below 1.5x at Q2 2026 reporting, Q2 orders-to-revenue would need to drop below ~1.0x — essentially a 40-50% sequential order decline with flat revenue. No forward indicator supports that. Hold at 0.90 with residual risk for unexpected customer cancellations or policy shock.

TTM mechanics heavily favor YESQ2 orders would need to fall 40-50% sequentiallyNo customer cancellation flags in Q1 commentaryBacklog growth accelerating, not decelerating

opusRun 3

88%

Being modestly humble. The only pathway to NO involves either (a) a major project cancellation (historically rare for long-cycle power equipment), (b) customer credit event, (c) export control / tariff shock creating order-book writedown, or (d) Q2 revenue ramp dramatically accelerating while orders plateau (positive conversion, negative book-to-bill ratio). Option (d) is the most plausible — if GEV accelerates conversion to meet the raised FY guide, Q2 revenue could materially outpace Q2 orders. Adjust slightly downward from the raw arithmetic.

Strong Q1 print provides cushionConversion acceleration could mechanically compress ratioBack-half revenue acceleration required for raised FY guideLow probability tail risks — cancellations, policy shocks

sonnetRun 1

91%

Resolution date is July 2026 (Q2 earnings). With Q1 at 1.96x and Q2 orders expected to be seasonally similar or stronger (data center backlog visibility), the trailing-twelve-month ratio should comfortably exceed 1.5x at the reporting date. Raised FY26 guide signals management confidence. Strong probability of YES.

Q1 1.96x provides cushionQ2 typically seasonally similar or strongerFY guide raise confirms demandPower orders +59% YoY

sonnetRun 2

87%

Be cautious about the calibration lesson from resolved GEV markets. The ensemble over-weighted Q1 conversion pace for revenue-beat — but here the conservative case on conversion actually helps YES (slower revenue conversion preserves higher book-to-bill). However, if management's back-half acceleration commitment triggers a revenue step-up in Q2 while orders remain at Q1 levels, the ratio could compress. Adjust slightly below consensus high end.

Q1 print comfortably above thresholdPotential Q2 revenue acceleration could compress ratioOrder momentum strong but not infiniteTail risks to YES are small but non-zero

sonnetRun 3

93%

Arithmetic is compelling. Even if Q2 2026 orders fall 25% sequentially to $13.7B and Q2 revenue rises 15% to $10.7B (implying meaningful conversion acceleration), the Q2 standalone ratio is 1.28x — but the TTM ratio at Q2 reporting remains well above 1.5x because Q3-Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 were all strong. Near-certain YES under most scenarios.

TTM calculation protected by strong trailing quartersEven pessimistic Q2 scenarios preserve TTM >1.5xCross-segment order breadthBacklog +$13B QoQ

haikuRun 1

89%

Q1 print of 1.96x is well above 1.5x threshold. Strong YES probability.

Q1 1.96x book-to-billStrong ordersBacklog growing

haikuRun 2

90%

Raised FY guide + $163B backlog + cross-segment order strength all support YES through Q2 2026.

Raised FY guide$163B backlogCross-segment orders strong

haikuRun 3

86%

Modest caution — Q2 revenue acceleration could compress ratio but TTM protection likely keeps it above 1.5x.

TTM cushion from strong trailing quartersQ2 acceleration caveatThreshold well-covered

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if GEV's trailing-twelve-month orders-to-revenue ratio remains above 1.5x as of Q2 2026 earnings (expected July 2026). Resolves NO if book-to-bill falls to 1.5x or below.

Resolution Source

GE Vernova Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings releases, orders and revenue data

Source Trigger

Book-to-bill ratio trend (is conversion accelerating?)

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH

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