Will GitLab disclose Duo Agent revenue or adoption metrics showing >5% penetration of Ultimate customers by Q2 FY2027?

Duo Agent was pre-GA as of Dec 2, 2025 with zero verifiable evidence on adoption or economics. The question requires both disclosure AND >5% Ultimate penetration by September 2026. Management has already pre-announced 'first few platform-based expansions' pre-GA, suggesting willingness to discuss Duo Agent metrics. However, achieving 5% of Ultimate customers within roughly 9-10 months of GA is a high bar for an enterprise product with an unproven usage-based pricing model during a period of 5 C-suite changes. The declining DBNRR (122% to 119%) suggests the expansion engine is weakening, which could both motivate aggressive Duo Agent push and reflect customer caution on new spending.

The resolution criteria require a specific quantitative threshold (>5% of Ultimate customers) disclosed through official channels by September 2026. While GitLab management has shown willingness to reference Duo Agent qualitatively ('first few expansions'), enterprise AI tool adoption at 5% penetration within ~10 months of GA faces multiple headwinds: unproven usage-based pricing economics, no reference data for the seat-to-usage transition, and a 32:1 discretionary insider sell:buy ratio suggesting limited internal conviction. The Myth Meter's MODEST expectations classification means the market is not pricing in meaningful Duo Agent success, which paradoxically means GitLab may face less pressure to disclose weak metrics. I assign lower probability because the conjunction of GA launch, meaningful adoption, AND quantified disclosure all happening by Q2 FY2027 requires multiple things to go right.

Two countervailing forces are roughly balanced. For YES: GitLab has strong strategic incentive to disclose Duo Agent metrics if favorable since the market is pricing in minimal AI credit (MODEST expectations), making any positive disclosure a potential catalyst. Management already mentioned 'first few expansions' pre-GA, establishing a disclosure precedent. The 91% customer survey data (expect increased GitLab usage from AI) suggests demand-side readiness, even if management-reported. For NO: the product was not even GA as of Dec 2025, 5% of Ultimate customers is a meaningful threshold, the usage-based pricing model is entirely unproven, and the company is navigating significant leadership transition. Per-seat usage proxies growing 20-40% YoY suggests customers are using more GitLab, which could facilitate Duo Agent upsell, but this is indirect evidence. I land slightly below 50% because the 5% threshold is specific and demanding.

GitLab will almost certainly disclose Duo Agent metrics by September 2026 -- the question is whether they hit 5%. Management already established a disclosure pattern by mentioning 'first few expansions' pre-GA, and four of five lenses identified this as the strategic fulcrum. With MODEST market expectations and a stock at 5.5x forward P/S, GitLab has every incentive to trumpet any positive AI adoption data. The 20-40% per-seat usage growth and 91% customer survey on AI adoption suggest the demand environment is favorable. I give a slight edge to YES because the disclosure bar is actually quite low -- 5% of Ultimate customers is perhaps a few hundred customers, and management will likely discuss Duo Agent extensively regardless given its strategic importance.

The resolution hinges on whether GitLab can get Duo Agent to meaningful scale fast enough. Key consideration: Duo Agent targets Ultimate customers (54% of ARR), and these are GitLab's most engaged, highest-value accounts. Enterprise adoption of AI developer tools has been rapid across the industry (GitHub Copilot precedent), and GitLab's integrated platform gives them a distribution advantage. However, the 5% threshold specifically requires penetration measurement, and companies often avoid disclosing metrics that look weak. If adoption is at 3-4% by September 2026, management may reference Duo Agent qualitatively but avoid the specific quantification that would resolve this YES. The declining DBNRR suggests customers may resist incremental spending, pushing against rapid adoption.

I weigh the pre-GA status heavily. As of Dec 2, 2025, Duo Agent had zero verifiable adoption data. Even assuming GA in Jan 2026, achieving 5% penetration of Ultimate customers by September 2026 gives roughly 8 months of commercial availability. Enterprise procurement cycles for new products typically run 3-6 months, which leaves very little time for widespread adoption. The 'first few expansions' pre-GA is encouraging but 'first few' explicitly signals small numbers. The 32:1 insider sell:buy ratio and director selling 67% of position without a 10b5-1 plan suggest insiders may not be confident in near-term catalysts. I lean below 50% because the timeline is tight for enterprise adoption.

Two decisive factors: (1) GitLab has strong incentive to disclose any positive Duo Agent data given MODEST market expectations that price in minimal AI credit, and (2) the product was not GA as of Dec 2025, giving only ~8-9 months to reach 5% Ultimate penetration. The first factor pushes toward disclosure, the second makes the 5% threshold uncertain. Near coin-flip with a slight lean toward NO because enterprise adoption at scale takes time.

Zero verifiable evidence exists on Duo Agent adoption or economics. The product was pre-GA with no pricing data, no adoption metrics, and no independent verification of customer demand. The 5% threshold is specific and measurable. With the usage-based pricing model entirely unproven and 5 C-suite changes creating execution uncertainty, the burden of proof falls on demonstrating rapid adoption. Most enterprise SaaS products take 12-18 months post-GA to reach meaningful penetration of their existing base.

The question resolves YES on either revenue disclosure OR adoption metrics showing >5% penetration. This OR condition raises the probability because management can satisfy it through multiple disclosure channels. GitLab already mentioned 'first few expansions' pre-GA, and with Duo Agent being the strategic fulcrum for all five lenses, earnings calls through September 2026 will inevitably feature Duo Agent discussion. The key uncertainty is whether adoption reaches 5% -- with 20-40% per-seat usage growth suggesting engaged customers, and Ultimate customers being the natural early adopter cohort.