Will Robinhood's durable revenue (Gold subscriptions + advisory fees + other non-transaction, non-NII recurring) exceed 15% of total revenue by Q2 2026?

The arithmetic is punishing. Durable revenue sits at ~$100-115M/quarter (8-9% of $1.3B Q4 revenue). Reaching 15% requires ~$195M/quarter at current total revenue levels, but total revenue is growing at 52% YoY, which pushes the threshold higher. Even if Gold subscriptions grow 60% (to ~$100M/quarter) and advisory/banking/card collectively contribute $30-40M, the total durable would be ~$140-150M against a denominator that may be $1.4-1.5B by Q2 2026. The only plausible path to 15% involves a sharp revenue decline (crypto crash reducing the denominator), but crypto revenue remained resilient at 18% through Q4 2025. The structural denominator problem dominates.

I want to stress-test the upside scenario. Gold subscribers grew 58% YoY to 4.2M; if that pace continues, Q2 2026 could see ~5.5M subscribers at $5/month = ~$330M ARR or ~$82M/quarter. Gold Card scaling to >1M customers with $10B+ spend could generate meaningful interchange ($50-100M annualized, so $12-25M/quarter). Advisory fees on growing AUM and banking could add $10-20M/quarter. In an optimistic scenario, durable revenue reaches $125-145M/quarter. But even at $145M, you need total revenue to be below ~$967M/quarter for 15%. Given Q4 was $1.3B and growing, total revenue would need to collapse by 25%+ -- plausible only in a severe downturn. The upside scenario still falls short without denominator contraction.

The resolved sibling market hood-q2-2026-revenue-growth-below-30 confirmed revenue growth deceleration to 27%. This is directionally helpful -- slower total revenue growth makes the denominator more manageable. If Q2 2026 revenue grows only 20-25% YoY from Q2 2025's ~$1.1B, total could be ~$1.32-1.38B. The 15% threshold would then be ~$198-207M. Current durable trajectory (8-9% growing perhaps 50-60% if Gold and new streams scale) might reach $130-160M in a very optimistic case. There is a narrow path if revenue growth slows further AND all durable streams outperform, but this requires multiple low-probability events to coincide. The committee's 8% prior was well-calibrated; Q4 data confirms the direction is positive but pace is insufficient.

The math is stark: durable revenue at ~$100-115M/quarter needs to reach ~$195M at current revenue levels. With only 2 quarters remaining, this requires ~70-95% growth in durable revenue. Gold subscriptions are the largest durable component and even with strong growth will contribute ~$75-85M/quarter. Advisory, banking, and card interchange are all in early stages with revenue not separately disclosed, suggesting they are immaterial. The prior committee estimate of 8% was appropriate, and Q4 earnings confirmed the trajectory is positive but far too slow to reach 15% by Q2 2026.

Focusing on the denominator problem: FY2025 revenue was $4.5B (+52% YoY). Even if growth decelerates to 20% for FY2026, annual revenue would be $5.4B or $1.35B/quarter. At 15%, durable revenue needs $202M/quarter. Current durable run rate of ~$110M would need to nearly double. The key insight from the Gravy Gauge analysis is that 'diversification across 11+ businesses is misleading for durability' -- most new revenue lines are themselves conditional. Gold Card interchange, prediction markets, and Bitstamp fees are all transaction-dependent. Only Gold subscriptions and possibly advisory fees are truly durable by the market's definition.

There is a tail scenario worth considering: if crypto markets crash in H1 2026, transaction revenue could decline sharply (crypto was 18% of revenue = ~$234M/quarter). A 50% crypto revenue decline would reduce total quarterly revenue by ~$117M, bringing it to ~$1.18B. At $1.18B, 15% = $177M. If simultaneously Gold grows to 5M+ subscribers and card/advisory contribute $30-40M combined, durable might reach $140-160M. Still short, but less impossible. This tail scenario is perhaps 10-15% likely, and even within it, reaching $177M is not guaranteed. The overall probability is low but slightly higher than a pure trend extrapolation would suggest because of this denominator-contraction pathway.

Durable revenue at 8-9% needs to reach 15% in 2 quarters. This means nearly doubling the ratio. Gold is growing ~58% YoY but even at that pace reaches only ~10% of total. Advisory and banking are too early. The math does not work without a denominator collapse.

The committee found the prior 8% estimate was possibly generous. Q4 data confirmed durable revenue improved to 8-9% from 6-7%, but total revenue grew 52%, widening the absolute gap. With $1.3B quarterly revenue, 15% = $195M, and current durable is ~$110M. The gap is $85M/quarter -- larger than all Gold subscription revenue combined.

Revenue deceleration from 52% to 27% helps marginally, but 15% threshold remains out of reach. The only realistic path involves both aggressive durable growth AND a significant revenue decline -- a low-probability conjunction. Committee's ~8% prior is appropriate given the updated data.