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HOOD Forecast Markets

Robinhood Markets

8
Active Markets
2
Resolved
31%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Apr 30, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

10 markets

Will Robinhood disclose annualized prediction market/event contract revenue exceeding $500M by Q2 2026 earnings?

Active
17%
Likely No
12%17%after Q4 2025 earnings
87% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will Robinhood disclose Trump Accounts initial AUM or sub count exceeding 250,000 funded accounts by Q2 2026 earnings?

Active
17%
Likely No
94% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Robinhood's FY2026 prediction market and event contract revenue exceed $400M cumulative?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will the CFTC finalize event contract rulemaking by June 30, 2026?

Active
8%
Likely No
11%8%after Q4 2025 earnings
92% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Robinhood's Q2 2026 crypto transaction revenue decline more than 15% quarter-over-quarter from Q1 2026?

Active
45%
Likely No
92% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Robinhood Gold subscribers exceed 5 million by Q2 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
72%52%after Q4 2025 earnings
79% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any US regulatory body propose or enact new restrictions on payment for order flow by July 2026?

Active
8%
Likely No
10%8%after Q4 2025 earnings
92% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Robinhood's durable revenue (Gold subscriptions + advisory fees + other non-transaction, non-NII recurring) exceed 15% of total revenue by Q2 2026?

Active
7%
Likely No
8%7%after Q4 2025 earnings
93% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Robinhood's year-over-year total revenue growth fall below 30% in any quarter by Q2 2026?

Resolved
62%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.144
Feb 10, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue decline more than 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025?

Resolved
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040
Feb 10, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue decline more than 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025?
NOBrier: 0.04
Jul 15, 2026
Will the CFTC finalize event contract rulemaking by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 8%
Aug 15, 2026
Will any US regulatory body propose or enact new restrictions on payment for order flow by July 2026?
Prediction: 8%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Robinhood disclose annualized prediction market/event contract revenue exceeding $500M by Q2 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 17%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Robinhood disclose Trump Accounts initial AUM or sub count exceeding 250,000 funded accounts by Q2 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 17%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Robinhood's Q2 2026 crypto transaction revenue decline more than 15% quarter-over-quarter from Q1 2026?
Prediction: 45%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Robinhood Gold subscribers exceed 5 million by Q2 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Robinhood's durable revenue (Gold subscriptions + advisory fees + other non-transaction, non-NII recurring) exceed 15% of total revenue by Q2 2026?
Prediction: 7%
Aug 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Robinhood's year-over-year total revenue growth fall below 30% in any quarter by Q2 2026?
YESBrier: 0.14
Mar 31, 2027
Will Robinhood's FY2026 prediction market and event contract revenue exceed $400M cumulative?
Prediction: 72%