Will Robinhood's year-over-year total revenue growth fall below 30% in any quarter by Q2 2026?

Q4 2025 almost certainly clears 30% YoY given the easy $614M comp. The real risk is Q1 2026 (need $1,205M off $927M) and Q2 2026 (need $1,285M off $989M). Committee-established underlying organic growth of 30-45% puts the midpoint at ~37%, which would hold for Q1, but by Q2 with crypto normalization from $268M toward $150M and higher comps, falling below 30% becomes quite likely. The question only needs ONE miss across three quarters, giving three chances to trigger YES.

With three shots at going below 30%, the cumulative probability is elevated. Q4 2025 is safe (easy comp). Q1 2026 is tight -- organic growth at the lower end (~30%) puts it right at the threshold. Q2 2026 is the most vulnerable with the $989M comp. However, Robinhood has demonstrated 11 $100M revenue lines and real execution capability -- new products (credit card, advisory, Gold expansion) could partially offset crypto decline. Net insider selling of $185M with zero purchases tilts risk toward deceleration.

For Q1 2026, the $927M comp requires $1,205M. Even with crypto normalization (-$88M if crypto drops from $268M to $180M) and NII cuts (-$50M per 25bps), the non-crypto business needs to carry growth. Robinhood had $927M in Q1 2025, and adding organic growth of 25-30% on the non-crypto portion could still get there. Q2 2026 at $989M needing $1,285M is the most vulnerable. The committee's unresolved debate about whether 30% underlying growth is a floor or will decelerate further is the key uncertainty. If it dips to 25%, below-30% is near-certain for Q2.

The math is straightforward: three shots at going below 30%, with Q4 2025 being a freebie (easy comp). Q1 and Q2 2026 are genuine risks. Underlying organic growth of 30-45% means at the low end, you're right at the 30% threshold. Any negative surprise -- crypto decline, rate cuts, prediction market normalization -- pushes below. The Myth Meter identified this exact dynamic: cyclical inflation unwinding. Insider selling of $185M with zero purchases is directionally bearish on the near-term trajectory.

Per-quarter analysis: Q4 2025 ~5% chance of missing (easy $614M comp). Q1 2026 ~35% chance of missing ($927M comp with crypto normalization risk). Q2 2026 ~45% chance of missing ($989M comp is extremely demanding). P(at least one miss) = 1 - (0.95 * 0.65 * 0.55) = ~0.66, but accounting for correlation (if underlying growth is strong, all three hold), reduce to ~0.60. The correlated risk factor is crypto -- if crypto stays elevated through mid-2026, all quarters hold; if it normalizes, Q1 and Q2 are both at risk.

Crypto revenue at $268M in Q3 2025 (+339% YoY) drove approximately half the YoY increase. Crypto is cyclical by nature, and post-halving cycle euphoria typically fades. If crypto revenue drops to $120-180M range, that's a $90-150M/quarter headwind. Prediction markets boomed pre-election; post-election normalization could remove $50-70M/quarter. Combined headwinds of -$100-200M from these two factors make maintaining 30%+ growth on high comps very challenging. Robinhood's execution is real (gold expansion, credit card, advisory), but the question tests whether cyclical tailwinds fade faster than secular products scale.

Three quarters tested, need just one below 30%. Q4 2025 safe given easy $614M comp. Q1 and Q2 2026 are vulnerable with $927M and $989M comps respectively. Committee's underlying growth estimate of 30-45% puts the lower bound right at the threshold. Crypto normalization and rising comps create clear deceleration pressure.

Revenue trajectory Q1 +50%, Q2 +45%, Q3 +100% shows the Q3 spike was crypto-driven. Reversion to mean is the base case. FY2024 comps for Q1-Q2 2026 are against $927M and $989M -- very high bars. Three chances to go below 30% combined with crypto cyclicality and $185M net insider selling makes one miss likely.

Organic growth centered around ~37% (midpoint of 30-45% range) means one standard deviation below could breach 30%. Q2 2026 comp of $989M requires $1,285M -- that's 30% growth on a quarter that already benefited from crypto surge and prediction market launch. High probability at least one of the three quarters misses the threshold.