INTCActive

Will Intel Foundry report quarterly external revenue above $300M in any quarter of 2026?

Resolves February 15, 2027(272d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 23, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

50%

Apr 13

-8pp

Current

42%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings beat

Downgrade -8 pp. Q1 external foundry revenue $174M — DOWN from Q4 2025 $222M baseline and below $300M threshold. Remaining quarters require ~72% sequential growth from $174M base. Advanced packaging backlog growing billions/yr but conversion expected in 2027 per Zinsner. USG-project lumpiness preserves tail but base case is negative.

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether the Foundry commercial inflection is real or USG-dependent. Q4 2025 external revenue was ~$222M (USG-driven plus Altera deconsolidation). A single 2026 quarter above $300M would signal meaningful commercial traction beyond the USG baseline. Continued prints at or below $222M would validate the Foundry stranding scenario and contradict any qualitative commentary about the 14A pipeline converting.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 45%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

40%

Q1 $174M is 42% below threshold. To clear $300M in any single quarter from $174M baseline requires +72% sequential growth — aggressive. Packaging backlog converting in 2027 per Zinsner, not 2026. USG projects could drive spikes in Q3/Q4 2026 as fab utilization ramps. Possible but not base case.

Q1 $174M base 42% below thresholdPackaging conversion in 2027 not 2026USG Q3/Q4 spikes possible

opusRun 2

38%

Downward revision from 0.50 baseline. External revenue DOWN QoQ directly contradicts the traction narrative. Three quarters remain but trend is wrong direction.

External revenue trending DOWNThree remaining quartersPackaging in 2027

opusRun 3

45%

Any-quarter framing and USG-related revenue lumpiness plus Malaysia capacity announcement create probability tail. Modest downward revision from 0.50.

Any-quarter lumpinessMalaysia capacityUSG tail

sonnetRun 1

42%

Revenue baseline weaker than expected. Below coin flip with USG/Altera tail events possible.

$174M baseUSG tailPackaging in 2027

sonnetRun 2

40%

72% sequential growth from $174M in any single quarter is a reach given continued commercial absence.

Required growth rate highNo commercial basePackaging tail in 2027

sonnetRun 3

45%

Any-quarter framing gives tail value; USG project timing could drive Q3 or Q4 spike.

Any-quarter tailUSG lumpy revenueMalaysia expansion

haikuRun 1

40%

Q1 trend negative; threshold requires large growth.

Q1 $174MNeed 72% growthPackaging delay

haikuRun 2

42%

Modest downgrade from 0.50. Tail events keep probability meaningful.

Lower baseTail eventsPackaging 2027

haikuRun 3

43%

Lumpy USG-driven quarterly patterns keep probability meaningful.

USG lumpinessBase $174MThree quarters

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Intel Foundry segment external revenue exceeds $300M in any quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q1 through Q4 2026) as disclosed in quarterly earnings releases or 10-Q segment footnotes. External revenue excludes Intel Products intersegment transfers. Resolves NO if no 2026 quarter exceeds $300M external revenue.

Resolution Source

Intel quarterly earnings releases and 10-Q segment disclosures for FY2026

Source Trigger

Intel Foundry quarterly external revenue above $300M signals meaningful inflection; below $222M signals deterioration

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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