RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

INTC Forecast Markets

Intel Corporation

8
Active Markets
1
Resolved
42%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q4 2026 earnings?

Active
30%
Likely No
27%30%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q2 2027 earnings?

Active
48%
Likely No
42%48%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
95% agreement
Aug 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Intel's Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin print above 36%?

Active
85%
Likely Yes
38%85%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Intel Foundry report quarterly external revenue above $300M in any quarter of 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
50%42%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
95% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Intel file an 8-K exhibit disclosing anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay terms from the NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG strategic partner agreements by year-end 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
27%30%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CEO Lip-Bu Tan file a Form 4 disclosing an open-market INTC purchase by year-end 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
20%15%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
98% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch downgrade Intel to BBB-/Baa3 or below by year-end 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
20%12%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
98% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Intel Foundry's FY2026 segment operating loss narrow year-over-year versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B loss?

Active
82%
Likely Yes
70%82%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Intel's cash + short-term investments drop below $33B in any quarter of 2026?

Resolved
35%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.422
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will Intel's Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin print above 36%?
Prediction: 85%
Jan 15, 2027
Will CEO Lip-Bu Tan file a Form 4 disclosing an open-market INTC purchase by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 15%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Intel file an 8-K exhibit disclosing anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay terms from the NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG strategic partner agreements by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch downgrade Intel to BBB-/Baa3 or below by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q4 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 30%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Intel Foundry report quarterly external revenue above $300M in any quarter of 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Feb 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will Intel's cash + short-term investments drop below $33B in any quarter of 2026?
YESBrier: 0.42
Feb 28, 2027
Will Intel Foundry's FY2026 segment operating loss narrow year-over-year versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B loss?
Prediction: 82%
Aug 15, 2027
Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q2 2027 earnings?
Prediction: 48%