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INTC Forecast Markets

Intel Corporation

8
Active Markets
1
Resolved
42%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q4 2026 earnings?

Active
30%
Likely No
27%30%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q2 2027 earnings?

Active
48%
Likely No
42%48%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
95% agreement
Aug 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Intel's Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin print above 36%?

Active
85%
Likely Yes
38%85%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Intel Foundry report quarterly external revenue above $300M in any quarter of 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
50%42%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
95% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Intel file an 8-K exhibit disclosing anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay terms from the NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG strategic partner agreements by year-end 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
27%30%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CEO Lip-Bu Tan file a Form 4 disclosing an open-market INTC purchase by year-end 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
20%15%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
98% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch downgrade Intel to BBB-/Baa3 or below by year-end 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
20%12%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
98% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Intel Foundry's FY2026 segment operating loss narrow year-over-year versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B loss?

Active
82%
Likely Yes
70%82%after Q1 2026 earnings beat
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Intel's cash + short-term investments drop below $33B in any quarter of 2026?

Resolved
35%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.422
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will Intel's Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin print above 36%?
Prediction: 85%
Jan 15, 2027
Will CEO Lip-Bu Tan file a Form 4 disclosing an open-market INTC purchase by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 15%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Intel file an 8-K exhibit disclosing anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay terms from the NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG strategic partner agreements by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch downgrade Intel to BBB-/Baa3 or below by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q4 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 30%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Intel Foundry report quarterly external revenue above $300M in any quarter of 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Feb 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will Intel's cash + short-term investments drop below $33B in any quarter of 2026?
YESBrier: 0.42
Feb 28, 2027
Will Intel Foundry's FY2026 segment operating loss narrow year-over-year versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B loss?
Prediction: 82%
Aug 15, 2027
Will Intel publicly name at least one external 14A foundry customer commitment by Q2 2027 earnings?
Prediction: 48%