INTCActive

Will Intel file an 8-K exhibit disclosing anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay terms from the NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG strategic partner agreements by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(254d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 23, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

27%

Apr 13

+3pp

Current

30%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings beat

Modest upgrade +3 pp. Apr 8 8-K Ireland Apollo disclosure set a detailed-exhibit precedent. DEF 14A expected Q2 2026 creates disclosure catalyst. Terafab adds new strategic partner complexity. But market is narrowly scoped to NVDA/SoftBank/USG — Apollo and Musk disclosures don't resolve. Historical Intel pattern avoids detailed partner-term disclosure.

Why This Question Matters

Tests compound risk #3 (strategic partner dark matter). NVIDIA/SoftBank/USG warrant terms are undisclosed at analysis date, creating information asymmetry where the worst news has not been seen. YES (exhibit reveals anti-dilution, ratchet, or take-or-pay language) would materially reprice CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT and GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT downward and validate the asymmetric-negative baseline from historical government-backed foundry deals. NO preserves the benign-as-undisclosed assumption underlying the recovery thesis.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 33%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

32%

DEF 14A filing expected Q2 2026 could trigger disclosure for USG warrant terms and strategic partner structure. Ireland Apollo deal set precedent for detailed exhibits. Modest upgrade from 0.27.

DEF 14A Q2 filing tailApollo precedent for detailed disclosureIncreased deal volume

opusRun 2

30%

Tightly scoped to NVDA/SoftBank/USG. Historical pattern: complex deals stay undisclosed unless forced by proxy statements or material amendments. Slight upgrade.

Narrow scope marketDisclosure historically avoidedDEF 14A opportunity

opusRun 3

33%

DEF 14A + Intel pattern of detailed Apollo exhibit raises probability of USG warrant terms appearing in annual proxy.

Apollo precedentDEF 14A Q2 filingUSG warrants require disclosure eventually

sonnetRun 1

30%

Modest upgrade on DEF 14A catalyst.

DEF 14A catalystTerafab adds complexityApollo precedent

sonnetRun 2

28%

Narrow market scope (NVDA/SoftBank/USG specifically). Slight bump.

Narrow scopeDisclosure aversionAnnual report tail

sonnetRun 3

32%

DEF 14A opportunity + USG federal disclosure obligations.

Federal disclosure pressureDEF 14AIreland precedent

haikuRun 1

30%

Modest upgrade from 0.27. DEF 14A catalyst.

DEF 14AComplexity increaseApollo precedent

haikuRun 2

29%

Slight bump — historical avoidance pattern holds but annual proxy could force some disclosure.

Narrow scopeAnnual proxyHistorical pattern

haikuRun 3

31%

Modest upward tilt on regulatory disclosure pressure.

Regulatory pressureDEF 14AApollo precedent

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Intel files any 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, DEF 14A, or S-1/S-3 exhibit between April 14, 2026 and December 31, 2026 that discloses for the NVIDIA, SoftBank, or USG strategic partner agreements any of: (a) anti-dilution or full-ratchet adjustment provisions, (b) take-or-pay minimum volume commitments, (c) below-market pricing floors, or (d) minimum capacity reservation obligations. Resolves NO if no such exhibit discloses any of these terms by December 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

Intel SEC EDGAR filings (8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, DEF 14A, S-1/S-3 exhibits)

Source Trigger

Any 8-K amendment or exhibit revealing minimum commitments, take-or-pay, anti-dilution provisions, or full-ratchet language from NVIDIA, SoftBank, or USG strategic partner agreements

fugazi-filterCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

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