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Will Intel's Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin print above 36%?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Major upgrade +47 pp. Q1 2026 actual non-GAAP GM was 41.0% vs 34.5% guide (+650 bps beat). Q2 2026 guide is 39% non-GAAP (300 bps above 36% threshold). 18A yields running ahead of internal schedule. Six consecutive GM beats. To miss 36% would require a 300 bps guide miss — unprecedented in recent track record.
Why This Question Matters
The near-term P&L check on whether 18A yield improvements are flowing through and Panther Lake is walking from dilutive toward neutral. Q1 2026 was guided to 34.5% against a 40% target (called 'by no means acceptable' by Zinsner). A print above 36% validates yield trajectory and softens UNIT_ECONOMICS concerns; a print at or below 34.5% suggests yield claims are not converting and would pressure UNIT_ECONOMICS toward BROKEN.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Q2 guide midpoint 39% is 300bps above 36% threshold. Q1 beat guide by 650bps. Even if Q2 beats by only ~200bps (much smaller than Q1 beat, reflecting inventory benefit non-repeat), GM lands ~41%. To miss 36%, Intel would need a 300bps UNDERSHOOT vs guide — unprecedented recent track record. Management has now delivered six consecutive beats.
Strong bullish tilt, tempered by Zinsner's explicit acknowledgment of 'meaningfully larger Intel 18A contribution' and 'inventory benefits not repeating.' Both are drags. But from 39% guide, a 300bps miss is the tail. 0.83.
Management has beaten guide in 6 consecutive quarters by wide margins; yields are ahead of schedule; 36% is a 300bps buffer below guide. Very high confidence on above-36%.
Q2 guide 39% + execution track record strongly favors above-36%. Input cost inflation (DRAM/NAND/substrate) is the only identified risk but Zinsner guided around it explicitly.
Strong probability but not extreme — below-36% tail exists from unexpected product mix shift, input cost shock, or inventory-driven disruption.
Very high probability. 300bps buffer + execution streak + yields ahead of schedule.
Q2 guide 39%; Q1 actual 41.0%. Threshold 36%. Very likely above.
High probability. Tail risk from input cost shocks.
Strong bullish view — 39% guide with 300bps buffer and execution track record.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Intel's reported non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 2026 (fiscal quarter ending approximately June 27, 2026) is above 36.0%. Resolves NO if non-GAAP GM is at or below 36.0%. Uses non-GAAP figure as reported in Q2 2026 earnings press release.
Resolution Source
Intel Q2 2026 earnings press release and CFO commentary
Source Trigger
Q2 2026 GM print above 36% validates yield trajectory; at/below 34.5% suggests yield claims not converting
Full multi-lens equity analysis