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INTCActive

Will CEO Lip-Bu Tan file a Form 4 disclosing an open-market INTC purchase by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(195d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

15%

Likely No

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 23, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

20%

Apr 13

-5pp

Current

15%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings beat

Downgrade -5 pp. Despite Q1 beat, Tan filed no Form 4. Stock doubled YoY (~$40 → ~$80 implied AH) — worst possible entry point for a first open-market buy. Pattern of abstention deeply entrenched at 13 months. Small DEF 14A / proxy tail remains.

Why This Question Matters

Tests compound risk #4 (person-dependency). Tan has filed zero Form 4s in 10+ months since his March 2025 appointment — an unusual absence of the 'new CEO alignment signal' for a Fortune 50 CEO. A first open-market purchase would materially upgrade moat-rebuild narrative confidence and lift GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT. Continued absence preserves the person-dependent-recovery concern where Tan is central but has not personally committed.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 13% – 17%Aggregate: 15%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

15%

Tan has passed through multiple windows (post-IPO equity grant, post-Q1 2025, post-Q2, Q3, Q4 2025 earnings beats) without buying. Stock has doubled in a year — worst entry point for a first buy. Pattern strongly suggests he does not buy.

Multiple windows passedStock at 52-wk high worst entry13 months of abstention

opusRun 2

13%

The longer Tan has not bought, the less likely he ever will. Behavioral pattern is now deeply established.

Behavioral patternStock at highsNo stated intent

opusRun 3

16%

Eight months remain in 2026. Governance/proxy advisor pressure could force a buy during the proxy season. Small tail.

8 months remainingProxy pressure tailHistorical pattern

sonnetRun 1

15%

Stock doubled; Tan unlikely to buy at these levels. Pattern deeply established.

Stock doubledPattern entrenchedProxy pressure tail

sonnetRun 2

14%

Low probability. Tan's prior non-purchases at much cheaper levels indicate low underlying propensity.

Cheaper levels passedPattern consistencySmall tail

sonnetRun 3

17%

8 months of runway includes DEF 14A which could include newly-vested RSU-adjacent Form 4s (not qualifying) but also could trigger compensation committee-mandated open-market buy as part of reset.

DEF 14A reset opportunityPossible comp committee mandatePattern consistency

haikuRun 1

15%

Downgrade from 0.20. Stock at highs + pattern consistency.

Stock highsPattern13 months no buy

haikuRun 2

14%

Low probability — 13 months of no buys at better entry points.

13 months abstentionBetter entries passedPattern

haikuRun 3

16%

Modest downgrade on entrenched pattern.

Entrenched patternStock doubledTail events

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Lip-Bu Tan files any Form 4 with SEC EDGAR between April 14, 2026 and December 31, 2026 disclosing an open-market purchase of INTC common stock (transaction code 'P'). Grants, RSU vesting, and 10b5-1 plan sales do not qualify. Resolves NO if no such Form 4 is filed by December 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for Lip-Bu Tan

Source Trigger

CEO Tan first Form 4 open-market purchase (bullish) or any disposal (bearish); zero Form 4 activity in 10+ months since March 2025

fugazi-filterGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM

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