INTCActive

Will Intel Foundry's FY2026 segment operating loss narrow year-over-year versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B loss?

Resolves February 28, 2027(285d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

82%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 23, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

70%

Apr 13

+12pp

Current

82%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings beat

Major upgrade +12 pp. Q1 2026 Intel Foundry op loss $(2.4)B — improved $72M QoQ vs Q4 2025 $(2.5)B. Annualized $9.6B already below FY25 $(10.3)B baseline. CFO explicitly guided 'Intel Foundry's operating loss to improve through the year as 18A continues to ramp into volume and yields improve further.' 18A yields running ahead of internal schedule.

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether 18A yield improvements flow through to Foundry segment economics across a full year. A narrowing FY2026 loss versus the FY2025 $(10.3)B baseline would validate atomic-auditor's reframe that cash operating loss is much smaller than headline and that utilization is rising. A flat or widening loss would suggest yield claims are not converting and would pressure UNIT_ECONOMICS toward BROKEN even if Q2 2026 GM temporarily surprises.

UNIT_ECONOMICSOPERATIONAL_EXECUTIONCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 79% – 86%Aggregate: 82%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

84%

Q1 2026 annualized $9.6B already below FY25 $10.3B. CFO explicitly guided 'improve through the year.' 18A yields ahead of schedule. Major upgrade from 0.70.

Q1 annualized below FY25CFO explicit guide18A yields ahead

opusRun 2

80%

Strong bullish tilt. Tail risk from 14A investment step-up adding OpEx (Zinsner cited $72M Q1 improvement was partially offset by 14A step-up).

14A OpEx step-up tailCFO guide18A yield ramp

opusRun 3

86%

Very strong evidence for narrowing loss. 18A yield improvements + volume ramp + Malaysia expansion offsetting 14A costs. Q1 datapoint strongly supports.

Q1 datapointYield ramp ahead of scheduleCFO explicit guide

sonnetRun 1

82%

High probability. Q1 improved sequentially; full-year trajectory strongly positive.

Q1 sequential improvementYield tailwindVolume ramp

sonnetRun 2

79%

Strong upgrade from 0.70. Tail: 14A step-up could reverse improvement in back half.

14A step-up tailQ1 improvedCFO guide

sonnetRun 3

83%

Very likely based on Q1 trajectory and management guidance.

Q1 trajectoryManagement guidance18A scale benefits

haikuRun 1

82%

Major upgrade from 0.70. Q1 annualized rate below FY25.

Q1 annualizedCFO guide18A yields

haikuRun 2

80%

Strong bullish — Q1 trajectory + guidance.

Trajectory positiveGuidance positive14A step-up risk

haikuRun 3

84%

Very likely narrowing based on Q1 evidence and guide.

Q1 evidence strongCFO guideYield improvement

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Intel Foundry segment operating loss for the full fiscal year 2026 is less negative than $(10.3)B (i.e., a smaller absolute loss than the FY2025 reported figure). Resolves NO if the FY2026 Foundry segment operating loss is equal to or more negative than $(10.3)B. Uses reported GAAP segment operating income/loss as disclosed in Intel's FY2026 10-K segment footnote.

Resolution Source

Intel FY2026 10-K annual report, segment reporting footnote

Source Trigger

Intel Foundry segment operating loss stalls or worsens for 2+ consecutive quarters = thesis degrading; narrowing loss validates 18A yield trajectory

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSHIGH

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