Will any Intuit Section 16 insider make an open-market stock purchase by August 2026?

The resolution window is 6+ months and requires only ONE purchase from ANY Section 16 insider. Base rate for companies with 43% drawdowns seeing at least one insider purchase over 6 months is perhaps 40-50% generically, but the committee found zero purchases during the entire decline so far with dominant 10b5-1 selling pattern. SBC at $1.97B creates natural selling pressure. The CEO is a 'net discretionary buyer after RSU adjustments' suggesting some buying behavior masked by RSU mechanics. Directors had 7 RSU-related acquisitions in January. The INVERTED narrative (stock at ~$390 vs $814 high) creates theoretical motivation, but established zero-purchase pattern over many months of decline is powerful behavioral evidence against.

If insiders haven't bought during the sharpest part of the decline (from $814 to ~$390), the behavioral signal is clear -- they don't view it as a buying opportunity despite the INVERTED narrative. SBC creates structural selling pressure making open-market purchases unusual at tech companies. Cook (largest holder, age 73) is actively reducing exposure for estate planning via CRUTs. CEO adopted a selling plan, not a buying plan, 6 weeks before declaring bullishness. The 6-month window is long but the established zero-purchase pattern across all insiders is deeply entrenched. Insider open-market purchases at equity-heavy-compensation tech companies are rare in general.

The question requires any Section 16 insider, including directors who sometimes make symbolic purchases around proxy season or after joining the board. New board appointments could trigger a purchase. The 6-month window spans multiple potential catalysts (Q2 and Q3 FY2026 earnings, proxy season). However, the committee evidence strongly shows zero buying despite massive drawdown at E2 confidence (2/2 agreement). The word-action divergence is striking. Even the CEO who is 'net discretionary buyer' hasn't made a Form 4 code P transaction. The MISALIGNED classification is well-supported and deeply entrenched.

Zero purchases during a 43% decline over many months tells a clear story. Intuit's SBC at $1.97B/year means insiders constantly receive shares with no need to buy on the open market. CEO's 10b5-1 plan to sell 43% of direct holdings was adopted while stock was already falling. Board members with RSU-related acquisitions (not open-market) suggest equity compensation satisfies ownership desires. Resolution window is generous but behavioral pattern is deeply entrenched. Only a major governance event (new board member, activist pressure) would likely produce a purchase, and no such catalyst is evident in the analysis facts.

Taking a contrarian view: the stock is at $390 vs $814 high, a 52% discount. The INVERTED narrative suggests genuine undervaluation at ~17x NTM P/E for a 15-18% growth company with 32% FCF margins. Over 6 months, there will be 2 earnings reports and proxy season. If results are strong and stock remains depressed, pressure for a symbolic purchase grows. The resolution only requires ONE purchase from any Section 16 insider. With potentially dozens of Section 16 filers over 6 months and increasing public scrutiny of the insider-selling pattern, there's a non-trivial chance. But the established zero-purchase pattern over many months of steep decline is powerful evidence the probability remains low.

The most relevant base rate: how often do companies with zero insider purchases during a major drawdown see their first purchase within 6 months? In my assessment roughly 15-20%. Structural reasons (SBC, estate planning, 10b5-1 plans) are genuine and persistent. The CEO is technically a 'net discretionary buyer' after RSU adjustments but this hasn't translated to a Form 4 code P transaction. The threshold is low (any purchase) but behavioral inertia is strong. The Insider Investigator's E2 classification with 2/2 agreement on MISALIGNED suggests a consensus view that this pattern is entrenched, not temporary.

Zero purchases plus $375M selling during 43% decline is a clear NO signal. SBC at $1.97B/year means insiders get shares automatically with no incentive to buy on open market. 6-month window is generous but the established zero-purchase pattern across all insiders during months of steep decline is deeply entrenched.

The question only needs one purchase from any insider over 6 months. New board members, proxy season pressure, or governance concerns could trigger a symbolic purchase. But the established zero-purchase pattern during a dramatic 43% decline is powerful evidence against. The long window partially offsets the entrenched pattern but not enough to push above 20%.

Structural selling pressure from $1.97B SBC, Cook estate planning via CRUTs, and CEO selling plan all point away from open-market purchases. The MISALIGNED classification at E2 confidence is well-supported by 2/2 committee agreement. Zero purchases over the entire drawdown period is the most diagnostic evidence. Very unlikely even over 6 months.