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INTU Forecast Markets

Intuit Inc.

8
Active Markets
4
Resolved
47%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 20, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

12 markets

Will the Fifth Circuit vacate or substantially narrow the FTC's TurboTax advertising order by December 2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
41%40%after Q2 FY2026 Earnings
96% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Intuit announce a divestiture, restructuring, or strategic action for Mailchimp by end of FY2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
85% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will any Intuit Section 16 insider make an open-market stock purchase by August 2026?

Active
16%
Likely No
18%16%after Q2 FY2026 Earnings
94% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Credit Karma maintain above 15% revenue growth in Q3 FY2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
82% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Intuit announce AI+HI pricing changes or new subscription tiers incorporating AI agents by the FY2026 10-K?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
78% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Intuit record a goodwill impairment charge by the FY2026 10-K (July 2026)?

Active
10%
Likely No
7%10%after Q2 FY2026 Earnings
95% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will TurboTax report positive total filer count growth for the 2026 tax season?

Active
88%
Likely Yes
79%88%after Q2 FY2026 Earnings
93% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will Intuit report Q3 FY2026 total revenue growth above 10% year-over-year?

Active
78%
Likely Yes
90% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Credit Karma's revenue growth fall below 10% YoY in Q2 FY2026?

Resolved
32%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.102
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Intuit report Q2 FY2026 revenue at or above the high end of guidance ($5.25B)?

Resolved
35%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.122
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will Intuit disclose continued Mailchimp revenue decline through H1 FY2026?

Resolved
77%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.053
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will Intuit's stock-based compensation exceed 11% of revenue in Q2 FY2026?

Resolved
67%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.109
Feb 26, 2026
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

Mar 10, 2026RESOLVED
Will Credit Karma's revenue growth fall below 10% YoY in Q2 FY2026?
NOBrier: 0.10
Mar 10, 2026RESOLVED
Will Intuit report Q2 FY2026 revenue at or above the high end of guidance ($5.25B)?
NOBrier: 0.12
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Intuit disclose continued Mailchimp revenue decline through H1 FY2026?
YESBrier: 0.05
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Intuit's stock-based compensation exceed 11% of revenue in Q2 FY2026?
YESBrier: 0.11
Jun 15, 2026
Will Credit Karma maintain above 15% revenue growth in Q3 FY2026?
Prediction: 40%
Jun 15, 2026
Will TurboTax report positive total filer count growth for the 2026 tax season?
Prediction: 88%
Jun 15, 2026
Will Intuit report Q3 FY2026 total revenue growth above 10% year-over-year?
Prediction: 78%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Intuit announce a divestiture, restructuring, or strategic action for Mailchimp by end of FY2026?
Prediction: 25%
Sep 15, 2026
Will any Intuit Section 16 insider make an open-market stock purchase by August 2026?
Prediction: 16%
Oct 15, 2026
Will Intuit announce AI+HI pricing changes or new subscription tiers incorporating AI agents by the FY2026 10-K?
Prediction: 55%
Oct 15, 2026
Will Intuit record a goodwill impairment charge by the FY2026 10-K (July 2026)?
Prediction: 10%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the Fifth Circuit vacate or substantially narrow the FTC's TurboTax advertising order by December 2026?
Prediction: 40%