INTU Thesis Assessment

The highest-information-gain market jointly with FTC. At 32% probability, the ensemble considers further Credit Karma deceleration below 10% a meaningful minority scenario rather than a base case. This is moderately reassuring for REVENUE_DURABILITY -- the 68% probability that growth stays above 10% suggests the 19-point deceleration from 34% to 15% may represent cyclical normalization rather than structural deterioration. However, even stabilization at 10-15% would mean Credit Karma has lost two-thirds of its growth rate in two quarters, keeping REVENUE_DURABILITY at CONDITIONAL. A sub-10% print would escalate CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT concerns for the $7.1B acquisition.

The highest model agreement among high-information-gain markets (0.96) at a near-coin-flip probability of 41%. The ensemble treats this as genuinely uncertain, reflecting the Regulatory Reader's 40-50% vacatur estimate based on the sympathetic Fifth Circuit and Jarkesy doctrine. A vacatur would be the single strongest de-escalation event for REGULATORY_EXPOSURE, dropping it from ELEVATED to MANAGEABLE and removing a qualitative overhang from the Consumer Group. The 59% probability of the order standing means the baseline assumption is that the FTC behavioral restriction persists, supporting the ELEVATED classification. However, TurboTax's 27% revenue growth despite the restriction suggests the operational impact may be more limited than the legal classification implies.

At 18% probability with strong agreement, the ensemble strongly expects insiders will continue the pattern of zero open-market purchases that the Insider Investigator flagged as MISALIGNED. This is the most thesis-critical market in the set because it directly tests the central unresolved tension: if the Myth Meter's INVERTED narrative gap is correct (stock is undervalued, bear thesis is wrong), insiders with maximum visibility would be expected to demonstrate conviction. The 82% probability that no insider steps up to purchase through August 2026 deepens the MISALIGNED classification and casts sustained doubt on the INVERTED narrative. This market's contribution is primarily directional -- it weighs against the undervaluation thesis.

At 35% probability, the ensemble considers a high-end guidance beat unlikely but not improbable. Q1 delivered 15.5% growth, outpacing the 12-13% FY guidance, which creates a reasonable base for an upside surprise. The 65% probability of missing the high end suggests the seasonally weak Q2 (GBSG-heavy) may underperform the Q1 trajectory. If revenue does reach $5.25B+, it would reinforce the INVERTED narrative thesis by demonstrating execution acceleration. A miss, particularly if driven by Credit Karma and Mailchimp weakness, would validate the CONDITIONAL revenue classification and support multiple escalation triggers firing simultaneously.

The second-highest probability in the set. At 77%, the ensemble strongly expects Mailchimp's revenue decline to persist through H1 FY2026, confirming what four of seven lenses flagged as the most cross-referenced concern. This is a clear escalation signal for CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT, moving the $12B acquisition further from the turnaround narrative management has promoted. Continued decline increases pressure on goodwill carrying values and deepens the reporting unit shielding concern from the Consolidation Calibrator. The 23% probability of a return to growth is the strongest available de-escalation path for CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT, but the ensemble views it as a minority scenario.

The highest model agreement in the set (0.976) combined with the lowest probability (7%) provides near-unanimous comfort that goodwill impairment is not an imminent threat despite the QUESTIONABLE accounting integrity classification from two lenses. The GBSG reporting unit structure that shields Mailchimp from standalone testing appears strong enough -- QBO's growth sustains aggregate unit-level fair values. This market effectively removes near-term impairment from the active risk matrix, though it does not resolve the underlying opacity concern. The 93% probability of no impairment means the $13.98B goodwill balance will likely persist through FY2026, maintaining the compounding opacity from QUESTIONABLE accounting presentation.

At 79% probability, the ensemble strongly expects TurboTax to maintain positive filer growth, providing significant comfort for COMPETITIVE_POSITION. This is the broadest test of the DEFENSIBLE moat classification -- total filer count decline would be the first concrete evidence supporting the AI disruption bear case that drove the 43% stock decline. The 79% probability of continued growth reinforces the Myth Meter's INVERTED narrative assessment: the dominant AI threat narrative appears contradicted by operational reality. However, this market resolves later (June 2026 after tax season data), meaning the de-escalation signal is deferred rather than immediate. The 21% probability of filer decline remains the single most dangerous scenario for the moat thesis.

At 67% probability, the ensemble expects the non-GAAP/GAAP gap to widen in Q2 FY2026. SBC rising above 11% (from 10.4% in FY2025) would move closer to the 12% escalation threshold that the Fugazi Filter identified for ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY. While this is the lowest-information-gain market in the set (0.36), its directional signal is clear: the accounting presentation opacity that two lenses classified as QUESTIONABLE is more likely to worsen than improve. This compounds with the goodwill shielding to sustain the narrative that Intuit's reported metrics systematically overstate economic reality. The 33% probability of SBC staying at or below 11% would represent a modest positive for accounting transparency.