INTUActive

Will TurboTax report positive total filer count growth for the 2026 tax season?

Resolves June 15, 2026(67d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

88%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement93%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 26, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

79%

Feb 20

+9pp

Current

88%

Feb 26

Q2 FY2026 Earnings

5.1M unique TurboTax visitors vs 4.2M full prior season (+21%) while IRS returns are down 5% -- near-direct evidence of filer growth and market share gains. AI adoption at 80%+ of customers with 50%+ of transactions. TurboTax revenue +12% in peak tax season quarter.

Why This Question Matters

TurboTax filer count is the broadest measure of competitive moat integrity. The Myth Meter classified the AI disruption narrative as INVERTED based on TurboTax Live +47% and revenue +27% post-FTC restriction. However, the Moat Mapper notes the 3-5 year AI disruption thesis is unfalsifiable with current data. Total filer count is the leading indicator -- a decline would be the first concrete evidence supporting the bear case that drove the 43% stock decline. Positive growth would further validate the INVERTED assessment and DEFENSIBLE competitive position.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

Range: 88% – 88%Aggregate: 88%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

opusRun 1

88%

Q2 FY2026 earnings provide near-direct evidence of positive filer count growth. The most diagnostic datapoint: 5.1M unique TurboTax visitors vs 4.2M for the full prior tax season -- a 21% increase in early-season engagement. This is particularly striking because total IRS returns are DOWN 5% so far in the 2026 season, meaning TurboTax is gaining significant market share, not just riding market growth. Additional supporting evidence: TurboTax revenue +12% during the peak tax-season quarter; AI-powered data entry used by 80%+ of customers; 3M+ AI agent users with 85% repeat engagement and 50%+ of transactions; 600 TurboTax Live service centers expanding the complexity-serving footprint; management guided 8% TurboTax full-year revenue growth. The AI disruption thesis is further invalidated: AI is TurboTax's growth engine, not its threat. Residual 12% probability for NO accounts for: (a) unique visitors are not identical to completed filers -- some may abandon; (b) tax season is early and later weeks could see different dynamics; (c) Intuit's definition of 'total filer count' in Q3 disclosure may use a different measurement basis than 'unique visitors'; (d) IRS returns being down 5% could reflect delayed filing, not lost filings, which could reduce TurboTax's relative advantage as the season progresses.

5.1M TurboTax visitors through Feb 6 vs 4.2M full prior season — 21% share gain against IRS returns down 5%TurboTax revenue +12% in Q2; 3M+ AI agent users with 85% repeat engagementAI disruption thesis invalidated — AI is TurboTax's growth engine, not its threatResidual risk: visitor-to-filer conversion gap, delayed IRS filing dynamics

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Intuit discloses positive year-over-year total TurboTax filer count growth for the 2026 tax season (filings for tax year 2025), in earnings commentary, press releases, or SEC filings during Q3 FY2026 (Feb-Apr 2026). Resolves NO if total filer count declines year-over-year. Resolves AMBIGUOUS if Intuit does not disclose filer count data.

Resolution Source

Intuit Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript or press release (expected May/June 2026)

Source Trigger

TurboTax total filer count decline

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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