Will Intuit disclose continued Mailchimp revenue decline through H1 FY2026?

The GBSG ex-Mailchimp spread persisting in Q1 FY2026 (18% vs 20%) directly quantifies continued drag. Management's own guidance bakes in ~1.5pp Mailchimp drag for the full year, meaning they themselves expect the drag to continue at least through the guided period. The turnaround target is 'double-digit growth exiting Q4 FY2026' -- explicitly NOT targeting H1. With AI-native competitors intensifying and no disclosed H1 milestones, the base case strongly favors continued flat-to-declining Mailchimp revenue through H1.

The resolution criteria include an AMBIGUOUS outcome if Intuit provides no Mailchimp-specific commentary, which is a meaningful escape valve. Intuit has historically not separately disclosed Mailchimp revenue -- the 'down slightly' language was qualitative. However, analysts are likely to press on Mailchimp at Q2 earnings (Feb 26), and the GBSG ex-Mailchimp spread already quantifies the drag even without explicit disclosure. The stronger base rate is toward YES, but the ambiguity risk pulls it down somewhat.

The timing is critical: Q2 FY2026 earnings (Feb 26) provide the definitive data point just before March 15 resolution. Q1 data already shows 2pp GBSG drag continuing. For the turnaround to show results by H1, Mailchimp would need to have turned the corner by Oct 2025-Jan 2026. The AI agent integration turnaround is described as 'underway' -- early stage. Platform turnarounds of this magnitude typically take 2-3 years. The Moat Mapper's classification as 'acquisition integration failure' rather than organic moat failure suggests structural issues.

The data is clear-cut. Q1 FY2026 already shows continued Mailchimp drag (2pp on GBSG). Management's own guidance bakes in 1.5pp drag for the year. The turnaround target is explicitly Q4 FY2026 exit rate, not H1. Unless something dramatically changed in Q2 (Oct-Jan), Mailchimp revenue is almost certainly still flat-to-declining. The only uncertainty is whether Intuit will explicitly disclose it or stay vague enough to trigger AMBIGUOUS resolution.

Management specifically said 'double-digit growth exiting Q4 FY2026' -- the word 'exiting' implies they expect the inflection later in the year, not H1. Q1 data confirms continued decline. The AI turnaround is still early. The competitive landscape with AI-native marketing tools is intensifying. The AMBIGUOUS resolution path requires zero Mailchimp commentary, which is unlikely given analyst focus on this topic post-FY2025 disclosure.

Considering what would make Mailchimp grow in H1: AI agent integration could gain traction, and Q2 includes the holiday season (Nov-Jan) which may boost marketing spend on the platform. However, the structural issue is that Mailchimp competes against increasingly capable free/low-cost AI tools, and ecosystem integration hasn't generated measurable cross-sell results (committee: 'theoretically defensible but empirically unverifiable'). Even a seasonal boost probably wouldn't reverse the declining trend to positive growth.

Q1 GBSG data shows 2pp Mailchimp drag continuing. Management targets turnaround at Q4 exit, not H1. Four lenses flagged this independently. Mailchimp revenue is almost certainly still declining in H1 FY2026.

The key question is disclosure, not performance. Mailchimp is likely still declining, but Intuit may choose not to separately call it out. However, given the 'down slightly' language from FY2025, analysts will press on this in Q2 earnings. The GBSG ex-Mailchimp spread already quantifies the drag even without explicit disclosure.

Strong base rate for continued decline: structural competitive headwinds from AI-native tools, turnaround explicitly targeting later timeframe, Q1 data confirms ongoing drag. Resolution is straightforward given Q2 earnings timing just before March 15 deadline.