Will Credit Karma's revenue growth fall below 10% YoY in Q2 FY2026?

Credit Karma decelerated from 34% to 15% in one quarter -- a 19-point swing. Management guided 10-13% for FY2026, meaning they expect growth to stabilize in that range. The question asks if Q2 falls BELOW 10%, which is below the low end of management's own guidance. Management rarely misses below the low end of explicit guidance ranges in consecutive quarters. Credit card balances are stabilizing (+4% YoY), and credit scores are stabilizing for near/subprime segments. The CPA/CPC model is cyclically sensitive, but the macro conditions appear to be troughing rather than deteriorating further. However, the 19-point deceleration shows how volatile this revenue stream is, and there is an unresolved debate about whether the deceleration is structural. Probability is below 50% because management guidance of 10-13% provides a strong anchor, but meaningfully above base rate given the sharp deceleration trajectory.

The key analytical anchor is management's 10-13% FY2026 guidance for Credit Karma, reaffirmed after Q1 showed 15% growth. If management reaffirmed guidance at 10-13% when Q1 was already at 15%, they have visibility into Q2-Q4 metrics and believe the range holds. For Q2 to fall below 10%, it would need to decelerate a further 5+ points from Q1's 15% -- or management would need to have been badly wrong about their own guidance. While the CPA/CPC model is cyclically sensitive and advertiser concentration is unknown (a data gap), the macro environment is stabilizing rather than deteriorating. Credit card balance growth at 4% YoY suggests a floor in financial institution advertising spend. The probability is moderate but below 1-in-3 because breaching the low end of reaffirmed guidance is uncommon for Intuit's track record.

I weight the structural risk higher than the other runs. The 19-point deceleration from Q4 FY2025 to Q1 FY2026 is extraordinary -- it suggests Credit Karma's revenue base is far more volatile than a typical SaaS metric. The CPA/CPC model means revenue can move sharply with financial institution advertising budgets, which are themselves pro-cyclical. The unknown advertiser concentration is a material data gap -- if a small number of issuers drive outsized revenue, their individual budget decisions could push CK growth below 10%. Management guidance of 10-13% is helpful but guidance ranges for cyclically sensitive segments have wider error bars than core subscription businesses. The Consolidation Calibrator's unresolved debate about macro vs. structural drivers is the key uncertainty. If structural (e.g., market saturation of CK's lead-gen model, competitive pressure from NerdWallet or other aggregators), sub-10% is quite plausible.

Management guided 10-13% for Credit Karma in FY2026 and reaffirmed this after Q1 showed 15%. Intuit management has strong institutional credibility on segment guidance. Below 10% requires a miss below the low end of a reaffirmed range, which is a relatively unusual outcome for a company of Intuit's caliber. The macro picture is stabilizing -- credit card balances at +4% YoY and credit scores stabilizing -- suggesting the advertising spend environment is at a trough rather than deteriorating. The 15% Q1 growth, while sharply lower than 34%, is still comfortably above the 10% threshold. Even another 5-point deceleration would only bring it to 10%, right at the boundary. The question is whether conditions deteriorate enough to cause a full breach.

The deceleration trajectory is the most concerning signal. Credit Karma went from 34% to 15% in a single quarter -- that is not a gradual slowdown but a sharp regime change. In cyclical businesses, deceleration of this magnitude often continues for at least one more quarter before stabilizing. The CPA/CPC model is highly sensitive to advertiser spend, and credit card balance growth at only 4% YoY (previously double digits) signals constrained issuer budgets. Management's 10-13% guidance is relevant but was set after only one quarter of the new regime. If the deceleration reflects structural saturation of Credit Karma's lead-gen model (45M MAUs may be near ceiling for the US market), the 10% floor could be breached. Probability is above 30% but below 40% -- meaningful risk but not the most likely outcome.

The Myth Meter's INVERTED classification (stock undervalued based on operational execution) provides a counterweight to the Gravy Gauge's concerns. If overall operational execution remains strong, management likely has the ability to lean into Credit Karma growth through pricing optimization, product expansion (e.g., insurance vertical), and partner diversification. The 10-13% guidance range likely represents a conservative view that management has confidence in. Intuit's historical guidance accuracy for segment-level metrics tends to be tight. For sub-10% to occur, there would need to be a meaningful deterioration in macro conditions beyond what Q1 already reflected, and the stabilization in credit metrics argues against that. Resolution as AMBIGUOUS is also possible if Intuit does not separately break out Credit Karma growth, which would void the market entirely.

Management guided 10-13% for CK in FY2026, reaffirmed after Q1 at 15%. Below 10% means missing the low end of guidance. The 19-point deceleration is alarming but macro is stabilizing. CPA/CPC model is cyclical but conditions appear to be troughing. Probability around one-third -- meaningful risk but not base case.

Q1 FY2026 showed 15% growth -- still 5 points above the 10% threshold. Management reaffirmed 10-13% guidance. For YES resolution, growth needs to drop another 5+ points from Q1 levels. While the CPA/CPC model is volatile, credit conditions are stabilizing not deteriorating. Below 10% is a tail scenario, not the central case.

The sharp 19-point deceleration shows Credit Karma is more volatile than typical SaaS. The unknown advertiser concentration is a meaningful data gap -- could create sudden revenue drops. Confidence is LOW because the structural vs. macro debate is genuinely unresolved and the data vintage is 204 days old. If structural forces dominate, sub-10% is quite possible.