Will Intuit record a goodwill impairment charge by the FY2026 10-K (July 2026)?

Q2 FY2026 introduces a materially new impairment pathway while also providing a clean quarter. Goodwill stands at $13,983M with no Q2 impairment recorded, and GBSG continues to grow at +18% -- the GAAP reporting unit shielding remains structurally intact. However, management's statement that Mailchimp recovery is pushed 'beyond FY2026' with 'all options on the table' introduces a credible divestiture/restructuring scenario that was not present in the prior assessment. If Mailchimp is divested, the sale price would likely be well below the ~$7.7B acquisition carrying value, triggering an impairment charge as part of the disposition accounting. If Mailchimp is separated into its own reporting unit, it would face standalone impairment testing where QBO cannot shield it. The probability increase (~3 points) reflects: (a) 'all options on the table' is explicit management language acknowledging strategic alternatives including divestiture; (b) recovery pushed beyond FY2026 weakens the turnaround narrative; (c) the Credit Karma +23% and QBO +25% growth makes GBSG increasingly viable without Mailchimp, reducing the strategic cost of separation. Offsetting factors: 'all options' is standard corporate hedging language; divestiture timeline may extend beyond FY2026 10-K; GBSG unit-level test continues to pass easily; no interim triggering event in Q2.