Will Intuit report Q2 FY2026 revenue at or above the high end of guidance ($5.25B)?

Q1 FY2026 delivered $3.9B at +18% YoY, significantly outpacing 12-13% guidance. However, $5.25B from Q2 FY2025's $4.0B base implies ~31% YoY growth -- a massive acceleration from Q1's 18%. While GBSG at +18% and Consumer Group at +21% show strong execution, and five of seven lenses acknowledge exceptional core business performance, the CONDITIONAL revenue classification and Credit Karma deceleration (34% to 15%) add material risk to hitting this specific high-end threshold.

FY2025 total revenue was approximately $18.7B. Q2 FY2025 at $4.0B was ~21.4% of full-year. Applying similar seasonality to FY2026's $21.1B midpoint yields Q2 of ~$4.52B -- well below $5.25B. Even at the high end ($21.2B), proportional Q2 share would be ~$4.54B. The $5.25B target requires not just beating guidance but fundamentally shifting Intuit's seasonal revenue distribution. Insider MISALIGNMENT (selling during apparent undervaluation) and CONDITIONAL revenue classification both weigh against this outcome.

Q1 growth rates were exceptional: QBO Accounting +25%, TurboTax +27%, mid-market ~40% growth. If these rates sustain into Q2's larger seasonal quarter (early tax filing ramp), $5.25B becomes conceivable. However, Credit Karma decelerating from 34% to 15% and Mailchimp's continued decline create meaningful drag on GBSG. The unresolved CONDITIONAL vs DURABLE debate is directly material -- if DURABLE, the trajectory supports it; if CONDITIONAL, cyclical factors make the high threshold uncertain. The INVERTED narrative classification is modestly bullish but insiders selling provides a countervailing signal.

The math is clear: $5.25B from Q2 FY2025's $4.0B requires ~31% YoY growth. Q1 delivered 18%. For Q2 to jump to 31%, every segment would need extraordinary acceleration simultaneously. The CONDITIONAL classification and Credit Karma/Mailchimp headwinds work against this. Even with strong execution, Q2 more likely comes in around $4.5-4.8B -- a solid beat on guidance pace but below the $5.25B threshold. This is the high end of implied quarterly guidance, not the base case.

Intuit's Q2 (Nov-Jan) includes early tax season and holiday, making it larger than Q1 but still not peak (Q3 Feb-Apr is peak tax). In FY2025, Q2 was $4.0B or ~21.4% of full-year. If growth is accelerating beyond guidance, Q2 could be proportionally larger, but 31% YoY growth is a significant step up from Q1's 18%. The strong segment data (QBO +25%, TurboTax +27%) helps but these growth rates need to translate into $1.25B incremental revenue YoY in one quarter. That's an aggressive target given the demonstrated growth trajectory.

Q1 beat guidance significantly with $3.9B versus initial estimates around $3.28B. Every major segment is growing above company-level guidance. The INVERTED narrative classification means market expectations are low relative to execution. However, the binary resolution at exactly $5.25B is a very specific, high bar. Given strong execution but the extremely high threshold requiring 31% YoY growth, the probability sits modestly below 50%. The committee's finding that five of seven lenses acknowledge exceptional execution provides a bullish floor, but the specific dollar threshold is demanding.

Q1 at $3.9B grew 18% YoY. Q2 FY2025 was $4.0B. $5.25B requires ~31% growth -- a significant step change. Strong Q1 execution (GBSG +18%, Consumer +21%) supports above-guidance performance, but 31% YoY is well above any demonstrated quarterly growth rate. CONDITIONAL revenue classification with Credit Karma and Mailchimp headwinds supports caution.

Q1 beat pace significantly with every segment growing double digits. But $5.25B from a $4.0B base requires extraordinary acceleration beyond anything demonstrated. Credit Karma decelerating and Mailchimp declining create headwinds. More likely Q2 lands around $4.5-4.7B -- strong performance but below the $5.25B threshold. Insider selling adds an additional cautionary signal.

Strong Q1 execution (+18% vs 12-13% guidance) demonstrates management conservatism. But the $5.25B threshold implies 31% YoY growth, well above any demonstrated quarterly rate. Even with seasonal tailwinds from early tax season in Q2 (Nov-Jan), this represents a substantial acceleration. The committee's CONDITIONAL classification reflects 25-30% cyclical exposure that constrains upside.