Will Intuit announce AI+HI pricing changes or new subscription tiers incorporating AI agents by the FY2026 10-K?

The CEO's statement is unusually concrete for Intuit. 'We're going to be rolling out AI and HI now as part of our lineup' with 'we'll see over time an increase in subscription prices' is close to a public announcement itself. The Anthropic partnership creates concrete delivery accountability — a multi-year deal with Claude Agent SDK integration requires pricing architecture to monetize. QB Live +50% growth demonstrates the market is absorbing the current AI+HI pricing at premium rates. The key question is whether the formal packaging announcement happens within the July 31 window or slips to FY2027. The CEO said 'now' and 'going to be rolling out' — this implies a near-term timeline. I assign 55-60% probability to a formal announcement within FY2026.

The bear case centers on Intuit's execution timeline. Even with strong intent, the path from CEO stating 'we're assessing' to a formal pricing announcement involves: product team alignment, legal review of subscription terms, customer communication materials, sales training, and investor relations framing. For a company with ~100M customers and complex subscription tiers, this is a 6-12 month process. The Q2 earnings call (Feb 26) is 5 months before July 31. If the assessment was only recently concluding (as implied by the 'biggest surprise' comment), the rollout may target FY2027. I'm at 52% — essentially a coin flip — because the 'now' language creates genuine ambiguity about timing.

Key insight: the resolution criteria allows for a Q3 FY2026 earnings announcement (late May 2026) as a qualifying event. If management introduces a new AI+HI tier at Q3 earnings — even if the product launches in FY2027 — it likely resolves YES. Intuit has a pattern of announcing product/pricing changes at earnings calls before launch. The CEO essentially pre-announced at Q2 earnings. Q3 earnings in late May is the most likely formal announcement event — 3 months of additional assessment time, post-tax season, focused attention. The ~56% probability reflects the balance between the strong intent signals and the residual uncertainty about whether 'assessment' translates to 'announcement' within the Q3 earnings window.

The Anthropic partnership announcement in the same week as the Q2 earnings call creates a convergence of signals that is hard to ignore. Anthropic partnerships require concrete product plans — you don't announce a multi-year, 'game-changing' partnership without a monetization roadmap. If the monetization roadmap includes AI+HI tiered pricing (which it almost certainly does), Intuit likely has internal pricing architecture largely finalized. The external partnership announcement may actually be the trigger that pushes internal rollout on a faster timeline, because the partnership creates external accountability. 56% YES reflects the partnership-driven urgency argument.

The bear case that most concerns me: Intuit already sells QB Live as an AI+HI product at premium pricing (+50% growth). Management might define the 'new pricing rollout' as: more QB Live capacity, expanded QB Live markets, or higher QB Live ASP — all of which could be framed as 'rolling out AI and HI with new pricing' without creating a new formal tier or SKU. Under this interpretation, the rollout is already underway and simply continues. The resolution criteria requires 'new subscription tiers' or 'material price increases attributed to AI+HI.' If Intuit does QB Live expansion without creating a new SKU or raising existing subscription prices, it may not qualify. This definitional risk makes me less confident than the bullish reads.

The CEO specifically mentioned 'increase in subscription prices' and 'consumption of payments, payroll, and expert services.' These are distinct from QB Live expansion. Price increases on existing QuickBooks subscription tiers (Simple Start, Plus, Advanced) to reflect AI capabilities would be a clear qualifying event. Intuit has raised prices before (most recently when migrating from legacy to cloud tiers). A broad AI+HI price adjustment on core QB tiers is within operating precedent and doesn't require a new product launch. If this is the path, it could happen at Q3 earnings announcement without requiring months of new product development. The 55% YES reflects the possibility that a subscription price adjustment (simpler to execute) is the 'rollout' mechanism.

CEO said 'we're going to be rolling out AI and HI as part of our lineup' with new pricing. Anthropic partnership creates delivery accountability. QB Live +50% demonstrates demand. Tests showed customers willing to pay more. Timeline: Q3 earnings (May 2026) is natural announcement window. 58% YES probability.

The 'assessing' language is the caution flag. Companies that have finalized pricing changes don't say 'assessing.' They say 'we're planning to' or 'we expect to announce.' 'Assessing' combined with 'going to be rolling out' suggests a decision is imminent but not made. Decision-to-announcement at Intuit's scale is 3-6 months minimum. The July 31 window is tight. 54% YES reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the internal timeline produces an announcement within the window.

consensusFragile = true in the original analysis. This is appropriate. The CEO's language is the strongest evidence for YES; the 'assessing' qualifier and execution timeline are the strongest evidence for NO. On balance, the Anthropic partnership + CEO specificity about 'subscription prices' + QB Live success create a slight edge for YES. 55% probability reflects a slight lean toward YES without high confidence.