Will Intuit report Q3 FY2026 total revenue growth above 10% year-over-year?

The 10% management guidance is almost certainly a conservative floor rather than an honest point estimate. The key reasons: (1) TurboTax already delivered 12% in Q2 despite early season conditions, and Q3 is when tax revenue accelerates; (2) 5.1M assisted visitors through Feb 6 vs 4.2M for full prior season suggests the assisted segment is tracking well ahead; (3) GBSG mid-market momentum (+40% IES/QB Advanced) is structural and doesn't depend on seasonal factors; (4) Intuit beat Q2 guidance at the high end despite describing it as a 'slow start to tax season.' The main risk is Credit Karma — if CK decelerates sharply below 5%, it creates a 1-2pp headwind at total company level. But even with CK at 5% growth, the consumer group still grows mid-single digits, and GBSG at 15-17% maintains total company above 10%.

The risk concentration is in Credit Karma. CFO explicitly warned about lapping strong H2 FY2025 credit card and personal loan growth. If CK decelerates from 23% to low single digits in Q3, it creates a ~1.5-2pp headwind at total company level. At the total company level, that turns a likely 12-13% growth rate into a 10-11% rate — potentially right at or just above the 10% threshold. The resolution is YES if growth exceeds 10.0% — if Intuit lands at 10.1-10.5%, it still resolves YES. The question is whether CK deceleration + continued Mailchimp drag creates a scenario where total company hits exactly 9-10%. This scenario requires a significant CK miss (below 5%) plus a GBSG miss — possible but not base case.

Q3 FY2026 guidance at exactly 10% is unusual — Intuit typically provides ranges. A point estimate at 10% may signal higher confidence in at least meeting that level, or it reflects deliberate conservatism to give room to beat on a 'down quarter' for optics. Either way, the 10% threshold in the resolution criteria aligns with management's own guidance, and Intuit's track record strongly favors beating guidance. The more interesting question is whether they beat by 1pp (to ~11%) or by 2-3pp (to 12-13% as H1 would imply). Strong early tax season data and mid-market momentum favor the higher beat scenario.

H1 FY2026 at 17.8% growth means Intuit can deliver 10% in Q3 with significant deceleration and still maintain 12-13% full year. This math creates a wide safety margin. For total company to miss the 10% threshold, multiple things need to go wrong simultaneously: CK must fall to 0-5%, Mailchimp must deteriorate further, and GBSG must miss its mid-market trajectory. Each is possible individually but not jointly probable. The 78% probability reflects the strength of the multi-factor safety margin.

The risk scenario that makes me less confident than 85%+: Q3 FY2025 was also a strong quarter for Credit Karma, and lapping it simultaneously with the credit card/personal loan growth concentration creates a scenario where CK could be meaningfully negative in Q3 FY2026 — not just low single digits. If CK was 30%+ in Q3 FY2025 and decelerates to -5% or flat in Q3 FY2026, that's a ~35-point deceleration creating ~3pp headwind at total company level. Even this would likely keep total company at ~10-11%, but the margin shrinks. I'm at 76% vs higher estimates from other models because I give more weight to the tail scenario where CK is materially negative.

Resolution is YES at any growth rate above 10.0% — this is a low bar given H1 performance. The base case is total company grows 11-12% in Q3 (below H1 pace due to CK headwind, but above guidance due to tax season execution and GBSG momentum). A 79% probability implies approximately a 21% chance of missing the 10% threshold. That 21% is distributed across: (a) CK dramatically worse than expected (~8%), (b) macro shock affecting consumer behavior during tax season (~5%), (c) GBSG miss plus CK miss simultaneously (~8%). This is a reasonable uncertainty allocation given how late in the quarter we are (only 26 days into Q3 as of Feb 26).

Management guided 10%. Intuit beats guidance. H1 was 17.8%. Early tax season strong. CK is the risk but GBSG floors total company above 10% even in CK miss scenario. YES is high probability.

The resolution is binary at 10.0%. Intuit guided exactly 10%. In past quarters, Intuit beat guidance consistently. Tax season early data is strong. Credit Karma lapping is the main risk. Given the resolution threshold is exactly at guidance, beating guidance by any amount resolves YES. Base case is YES with 75-80% confidence.

Simple framework: Intuit beat or met guidance in all 4 quarters of FY2025. H1 FY2026 at 17.8% provides enormous cushion for Q3 deceleration. The 10% guided rate is likely conservative. Credit Karma headwind is real but bounded — even at 0% CK growth, total company stays above 10% given GBSG strength. Strong YES probability at ~78-80%.