Will Intuit announce a divestiture, restructuring, or strategic action for Mailchimp by end of FY2026?

The CFO's 'all options are on the table' language is a meaningful escalation from prior cautious optimism, but strategic transactions of this magnitude (divesting a $12B acquisition) require months of process: board approval, banker engagement, buyer outreach, and negotiation. With FY2026 ending July 31, 2026 — only ~5 months from the Q2 earnings call — the timeline is extremely compressed. The 4-year decline and $12B sunk cost create pressure, but institutional inertia in large software companies argues against decisive action within this window. Most likely outcome: strategic review continues through FY2026 without a formal announcement.

The resolution criteria require a 'formal' announcement — not just continued evaluation language. The most plausible path to YES requires either: (a) a divestiture/sale announcement, which needs a buyer at acceptable valuation (unlikely given declining revenue on a $12B book value), or (b) a formal restructuring specifically tied to Mailchimp operations. The mid-market 'green shoot' in Mailchimp (larger customer wins, SMS adoption) gives management a rationale for continued patience. Intuit's track record with Mint (held ~15 years before sunsetting) demonstrates tolerance for underperforming assets when platform value narrative is maintained.

The 'all options' language combined with a fourth consecutive year of declining revenue and an explicit recovery timeline slip creates the highest probability of strategic action in the 4-year decline. However, Q3 FY2026 is tax season — management focus is entirely on tax execution, not Mailchimp restructuring. The earliest a formal strategic review could produce an announcement is Q3 or Q4 earnings (late May or early August). A Q4 announcement would be just outside the July 31 resolution date. The probability concentrates around the scenario where an announcement happens at Q3 earnings in late May — perhaps 25-30% likely conditional on the process being active.

The CFO's 'all options' statement is the clearest signal that a formal strategic review is underway or imminent. The mid-market green shoot (larger customers, SMS adoption) is the one data point that gives management a face-saving rationale for continued patience — if they highlight this at Q3 earnings, a divestiture announcement becomes less likely. The 25% probability reflects: ~40% chance the strategic review is actively progressing toward an announcement, times ~60% chance it produces a formal action within the July 31 window.

A restructuring action within 5 months requires that the strategic review is already substantially complete and management has a specific path in mind. The 'we're evaluating how Mailchimp fits as part of our set of offerings' and 'all options are on the table' language sounds like early-stage review, not late-stage execution. Companies in late-stage review typically avoid this language to prevent deal leakage and speculation. The fact that management used it publicly suggests the review is in early stages, which is bearish for a within-window announcement.

The most likely outcome for Mailchimp in FY2026 is continued monitoring with escalating internal pressure but no formal announcement. Intuit's DNA is not to be reactive — the company spent 7 years building out assisted tax before declaring victory; they likely view Mailchimp's AI turnaround as still early. The 3-year AI integration period referenced by management (started 2023-2024) suggests they believe they have 1-2 more years to prove the thesis before forced action is required. Stock buybacks ($961M in Q2 alone) signal confidence in the current portfolio — companies executing aggressive buybacks rarely simultaneously make large portfolio restructuring announcements.

CFO 'all options' language is a real escalation. But: July 31 deadline is tight. M&A process takes 6-18 months. Tax season consumes Q3 management bandwidth. Most likely scenario: continued review through FY2026, formal action in FY2027.

Four years of declining revenue on a $12B acquisition is objectively bad. The timeline slip to 'beyond FY2026' is a second missed milestone. However, resolution requires formal announcement, not just evaluation. Finding a buyer at acceptable valuation is the key practical barrier. Without a buyer, divestiture is not possible regardless of management intent.

The question also includes 'formal restructuring' and 'strategic partnership' as qualifying events. A restructuring (merging Mailchimp into another Intuit business unit, e.g., folding it into GBSG marketing tools) is more achievable within 5 months than a divestiture. This path doesn't require a buyer. If Intuit announces Mailchimp is being integrated into QuickBooks Online as a marketing automation module (losing standalone brand identity), that could resolve YES. This path is probably 10-15% probable, which pulls the overall YES probability slightly higher.