Will Joby begin FAA TIA (Stage 5) flight testing by December 31, 2026?

Stage 4 at 80% completion with record 18-point FAA progress in Q4. First conforming aircraft ready. All TIA aircraft in production. Government support strong (bipartisan, eIPP). Timeline is tight but achievable.

Even with strong progress, remaining 20% of Stage 4 plus all of Stage 5 initiation in 9 months is ambitious. FAA has never certified eVTOL and 40% of criteria require new standards. Historical eVTOL timelines consistently slip.

The question is only about TIA initiation, not full certification. TIA requires completing Stage 4 and beginning for-credit flight tests. With conforming aircraft ready and FAA leaning in, initiation by year-end is plausible. But the remaining 27% on FAA-side of Stage 4 could take 6+ months.

Coin flip. The progress is real but the timeline is aggressive. Stage 4 has been underway for years; the last 20% often takes disproportionately long. The FAA-side progress (73%) matters more than Joby-side (80%). 9 months is tight.

Management explicitly said FAA pilots will fly later this year. They would not make this statement without FAA coordination. The eIPP program creates political pressure for certification progress. Record FAA engagement suggests institutional commitment.

Management has been optimistic before and timelines have slipped. The Archer countersuit could divert management attention and create regulatory caution. The payload issue suggests the aircraft may not be fully ready for the testing program scope FAA expects.

Strong progress indicators. 80% Stage 4, first conforming aircraft ready, record FAA engagement. Slightly above coin flip given momentum.

FAA processes are inherently uncertain and novel for eVTOL. The question is binary and 9 months is not much buffer. Low confidence given unprecedented nature.

All signs point to TIA being the focus of 2026. Multiple aircraft in production for TIA. FAA and Joby both investing heavily. Political tailwinds from eIPP.