JOBYActive

Will Joby's quarterly cash burn exceed $200M in any quarter of H1 2026?

Resolves August 15, 2026(151d)

IG: 0.72

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement78%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cash burn trajectory is the mechanism that converts adequate runway into crisis. A $200M+ quarter would signal manufacturing ramp costs are exceeding plan and shorten the runway to ~3 years. This directly tests the FUNDING_FRAGILITY assessment.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 33% – 42%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

H1 guidance midpoint implies $175M/quarter avg. $200M requires 14% above. Manufacturing ramp could push there.

H1 guidance midpointManufacturing rampOhio facility costs

opusRun 2

35%

Management guided $340-370M for H1 total. Even at high end, $185M/quarter avg is below $200M.

Management guidance ceilingQuarterly distribution

opusRun 3

38%

Q2 typically higher than Q1 due to seasonal construction/ramp. Could approach $200M if front-loaded.

Seasonal patternFront-loading risk

sonnetRun 1

40%

Direct assessment: guidance suggests staying below but uncertainty in ramp.

Guidance integrityRamp uncertainty

sonnetRun 2

33%

Management has track record of meeting cash guidance. Low probability of exceeding.

Guidance credibilityCost discipline emphasis

sonnetRun 3

39%

Moderate probability given manufacturing investments could concentrate in one quarter.

Lumpiness riskCapEx timing

haikuRun 1

38%

Below midline. Guidance range suggests control.

Guidance discipline

haikuRun 2

36%

Conservative estimate. Management emphasized discipline.

Cost discipline

haikuRun 3

41%

Slightly higher due to ramp acceleration risk.

Ramp acceleration

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Joby reports cash usage exceeding $200M in Q1 or Q2 2026.

Resolution Source

Joby 10-Q filings or earnings releases

Source Trigger

Quarterly cash burn exceeds $200M

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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