Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Will Joby's quarterly cash burn exceed $200M in any quarter of H1 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Cash burn trajectory is the mechanism that converts adequate runway into crisis. A $200M+ quarter would signal manufacturing ramp costs are exceeding plan and shorten the runway to ~3 years. This directly tests the FUNDING_FRAGILITY assessment.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
H1 guidance midpoint implies $175M/quarter avg. $200M requires 14% above. Manufacturing ramp could push there.
Management guided $340-370M for H1 total. Even at high end, $185M/quarter avg is below $200M.
Q2 typically higher than Q1 due to seasonal construction/ramp. Could approach $200M if front-loaded.
Direct assessment: guidance suggests staying below but uncertainty in ramp.
Management has track record of meeting cash guidance. Low probability of exceeding.
Moderate probability given manufacturing investments could concentrate in one quarter.
Below midline. Guidance range suggests control.
Conservative estimate. Management emphasized discipline.
Slightly higher due to ramp acceleration risk.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Joby reports cash usage exceeding $200M in Q1 or Q2 2026.
Resolution Source
Joby 10-Q filings or earnings releases
Source Trigger
Quarterly cash burn exceeds $200M
Full multi-lens equity analysis