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Will a federal credit card APR cap bill be introduced in either chamber of Congress by Q3 2026?

Resolves October 15, 2026(184d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement72%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Credit card APR cap legislation is the highest-severity forward risk identified in the analysis. Dimon called it 'dramatic' if enacted. Bill introduction would be the first concrete legislative step and would trigger immediate reassessment of REVENUE_DURABILITY.

REGULATORY_EXPOSUREREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 30% – 40%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

38%

Credit card APR cap bills have been introduced before (Sanders 2019, Durbin, AOC, Kaptur). Administration social media signal provides political cover. Democratic progressives would gladly introduce a bill to test the waters. ~5 months remaining to September 30, 2026 from the analysis date. Probability moderate but not dominant.

Historical precedent of similar billsAdministration coverLow friction to introduce

opusRun 2

32%

The question is whether a bill gets formally introduced (not passed). Bills in Congress are easy to introduce but the question is whether any member cares enough to do so with the social media signal as backdrop. GOP majority disincentivizes advancement but doesn't block introduction. Slight below coin flip.

Introduction bar is lowGOP majority doesn't blockMotivation uncertain

opusRun 3

40%

Bills get introduced all the time on consumer credit issues. The specific question is whether one targeting card APR specifically happens in this window. Administration has signaled, which is unusual and probably accelerates. Base rate elevated above normal.

Administration signalingHistorical introduction rateElection-year dynamic

sonnetRun 1

35%

Base rate of ~35% feels right — previous similar bills, political signal, but limited window (~5 months).

Base rate ~35%Limited window

sonnetRun 2

30%

Administration may handle via executive action (CFPB rulemaking) rather than legislation, reducing legislative urgency.

Executive action alternativeReduced legislative urgency

sonnetRun 3

38%

Khanna is a systematic advocate in the House — fits his pattern. Probability elevated by individual legislator motivation.

Individual legislator motivation (Khanna)

haikuRun 1

35%

Historical base rate ~35% for any 6-month window.

Historical base rate

haikuRun 2

32%

Slight below coin flip due to political uncertainty.

Political uncertainty

haikuRun 3

35%

Administration signal plus precedent makes ~35% reasonable.

Administration signal

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any member of Congress introduces a bill imposing a federal cap on credit card interest rates (APR or effective APR) by September 30, 2026. The bill must explicitly set a numeric maximum rate applicable to general-purpose consumer credit cards. Resolves NO if no such bill is introduced by the deadline. Verified via Congress.gov.

Resolution Source

Congress.gov legislative tracking

Source Trigger

Credit card APR cap legislation — Dimon called it 'dramatic' for CCB if enacted

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSURECRITICAL

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