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JPM Forecast Markets

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

3
Active Markets
4
Resolved
53%
Avg Probability

All Markets

7 markets

Will federal banking regulators issue a final Basel III Endgame rule by December 31, 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
76% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will a federal credit card APR cap bill be introduced in either chamber of Congress by Q3 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
72% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will JPMorgan's FY2026 total NII exceed $103B?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
81% agreement
Jan 22, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 ROTCE be at or above 18%?

Resolved
62%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.144
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 card net charge-off rate be below 3.6%?

Resolved
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.102
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 investment banking fees exceed $2.3B?

Resolved
58%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.176
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 standardized CET1 ratio be at or above 14.5%?

Resolved
55%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.302
Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 ROTCE be at or above 18%?
YESBrier: 0.14
Apr 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 card net charge-off rate be below 3.6%?
YESBrier: 0.10
Apr 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 investment banking fees exceed $2.3B?
YESBrier: 0.18
Apr 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 standardized CET1 ratio be at or above 14.5%?
NOBrier: 0.30
Oct 15, 2026
Will a federal credit card APR cap bill be introduced in either chamber of Congress by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Jan 15, 2027
Will federal banking regulators issue a final Basel III Endgame rule by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Jan 22, 2027
Will JPMorgan's FY2026 total NII exceed $103B?
Prediction: 52%