Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 standardized CET1 ratio be at or above 14.5%?

CET1 has been declining ~30bps/qtr but management has discretion to pace buybacks. Apple Card RWA step-up was in Q4 2025 — Q1 doesn't get another Apple Card step-down. Net income generation of ~$13-14B vs distributions likely roughly in balance. Holding at 14.5% is a discretionary call but plausible.

The trajectory is DOWN (15.0 -> 14.8 -> 14.5). Straight-line suggests Q1 lands ~14.2-14.3%. Management could slow buybacks to hold but hasn't signaled they will. Coin flip, slight negative bias.

Management has $30-40B excess per Dimon's own characterization — they have room to hold CET1 at 14.5% comfortably. The Apple Card step-down absorbed in Q4 means Q1 doesn't get that specific hit. Slight tilt above coin flip.

Close to coin flip. The trajectory is down but management has tools. 14.5% is exactly the Q4 level — a flat print is roughly 50/50, slight positive tilt if net income strong.

The recent trajectory is -30bps/qtr for 2 quarters straight. Without a clear buyback pace change, the momentum points slightly below 14.5%. Coin flip, slight negative bias.

The Apple Card step-down is the main one-time headwind and was in Q4. Without that, Q1 RWA growth is normal organic ~$20-30B, which is easily offset by quarterly net income of $13-14B less distributions of ~$5B, net positive ~$8B. On a $280B capital base, that's ~30bps lift. Slightly above coin flip.

Coin flip with slight positive tilt. Apple Card hit taken Q4, Q1 normal dynamics.

Trajectory is down. Depends on buyback pace. Coin flip.

Management has discretion and excess cushion. Probability just above coin flip.