Will JPMorgan's Q1 2026 card net charge-off rate be below 3.6%?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Card NCO rate is the single most important credit metric for JPM's consumer book. Management guided 3.4% for 2026 but Q1 is seasonally elevated. A print below 3.6% validates the 'resilient consumer' narrative; above would raise the first credit normalization alarm.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Management guided FY2026 card NCO to 3.4% — 20bps below the 3.6% threshold. Q1 is seasonally elevated but not by that much — typically 10-30bps above FY average. Math says Q1 2026 likely prints 3.5-3.6%. Management's 'favorable delinquency trend' commentary is recent (Q4 2025 call) and would have incorporated early Q1 visibility.
Consumer 'resilience' thesis is strong but not unconditional. Labor market is 'weakened a little bit' per Dimon. Q1 is the worst seasonal quarter. The math suggests Q1 could print at or just above 3.6% — the threshold is right in the plausible range.
2025 card NCO was guided down from 3.6% to 3.3% through the year on favorable trends. 2026 starts at 3.4% guide, which is already 20bps below threshold. Management has consistently been accurate (or beaten) on card NCO guides. Probability tilts clearly favorable.
Guide is 3.4%, threshold is 3.6%. 20bps cushion. Favorable for YES.
Q1 seasonal effect could eat most of the 20bps cushion. YES probable but not dominant.
2025 actual was ~3.3%. Q1 2025 was likely 3.4-3.5%. Management says trends are favorable. Q1 2026 should print similar to Q1 2025, below 3.6%.
20bps cushion below threshold, favorable commentary.
Tilt toward YES but Q1 seasonal risk.
Management guide at 3.4% with favorable trends supports YES.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if JPM's Q1 2026 Card Services net charge-off rate reported in the Q1 2026 earnings release is below 3.6% (annualized). Resolves NO if 3.6% or above. Uses Card Services segment NCO rate as disclosed in Q1 2026 press release or presentation.
Resolution Source
JPMorgan Chase Q1 2026 earnings release or supplement
Source Trigger
Card NCO rate — 2026 guide is 3.4%; above 4.0% would trigger reassessment
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