Will JPMorgan's FY2026 total NII exceed $103B?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The full-year NII guide of $103B is the central revenue anchor for 2026. Beating this guide requires fewer cuts than forward curve implies, resilient deposit growth, or accelerating card revolve. Missing would confirm the rate headwind is heavier than expected.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
JPM historically beats its own NII guides by 2-5%. 2025 saw progressive upward revisions from ~$90B to ~$96B. The $103B 2026 guide already bakes in some conservatism. Fewer cuts than forwards would be a tailwind. Slight positive tilt.
$103B is a ~$7B step-up YoY — aggressive. Requires meaningful card loan growth execution AND no material rate headwind surprise. Coin flip.
Stablecoin disintermediation is the main downside risk — probability low but severity meaningful. Card APR cap is tail. Base case is JPM hits the guide with slight beat. Slight positive.
Historical beat rate ~55-60% on NII guides. $103B is aggressive vs prior year but achievable.
Two rate cuts is already in — if the economy softens more, cuts could accelerate and NII compresses. Slight below coin flip.
Barnum's pattern is conservative-then-raise. Probability of beat is elevated.
Slight above coin flip based on historical beat pattern.
Coin flip — aggressive guide vs historical beat.
Slight above coin flip.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if JPM's reported full-year 2026 total net interest income (NII) exceeds $103.0B. Resolves NO if $103.0B or below. Based on full-year 2026 results as reported in the Q4 2026 earnings release or FY2026 10-K.
Resolution Source
JPMorgan Chase Q4 2026 earnings release
Source Trigger
2026 NII tracking vs $103B total guide — rate path and deposit growth execution
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