Will KRMN CEO Koblinski's 10b5-1 selling pace exceed 100,000 shares per week on average before September 30, 2026?

This question has been fundamentally undermined by the CEO transition. Koblinski is no longer CEO — he transitioned to a director role. His 10b5-1 plan expired in December 2025 with no new plan adopted. For this market to resolve YES, Koblinski would need to: (1) still be considered CEO (he is not), (2) adopt a new 10b5-1 plan (requires 90-day cooling-off), and (3) accelerate to 100K+ shares/week. All three conditions are now extremely unlikely. The question's premise has collapsed. The residual probability accounts for an edge case where the resolution criteria could be interpreted to include Koblinski as former CEO, or where he adopts a new plan as director.

The key question is whether the resolution criteria interpret 'CEO Koblinski' to mean 'the person who was CEO at market creation' or 'the current CEO named Koblinski.' Under either interpretation, the probability is very low: (1) If it tracks the person: Koblinski's plan expired, no new plan, no selling activity since December 2025 — he cannot sell 100K+/week without a new plan. (2) If it requires CEO status: Koblinski is no longer CEO. A tiny residual probability accounts for the possibility he adopts a new plan as director, or there is a misunderstanding of his role.

This is effectively a dead market. The question specifically asks about 'CEO Koblinski's 10b5-1 selling pace.' Koblinski is not CEO. His 10b5-1 plan has expired. There has been no selling activity since December 2025. To reach 100K shares/week, he would need: a new 10b5-1 plan (90-day cooling-off minimum), then sustained selling at 33% higher pace than his previous plan. As a director with no CEO responsibility, the motivation to sell aggressively is also diminished. Near-zero probability.

The CEO transition is the decisive factor. Koblinski's 10b5-1 plan expired and he is no longer CEO. The resolution criteria ask about 'CEO Koblinski's 10b5-1 selling pace' — he is neither CEO nor does he have a 10b5-1 plan. Both conditions of the question have been negated. The tiny residual probability reflects the possibility that (a) he could adopt a new plan as director and somehow qualify under the resolution criteria, or (b) there is ambiguity in how the question tracks the individual vs. the title.

Koblinski's transition from CEO to director and the expiration of his 10b5-1 plan in December 2025 make this market essentially unresolvable as YES. Even if he were to adopt a new plan (requiring 90-day cooling-off, putting earliest start at June-July 2026), there would only be 2-3 months before the September deadline to average 100K+ shares/week. This assumes he would want to sell at an accelerated pace as a director, which has no evident motivation. Probability is near the floor.

I give slightly more probability than some estimates because there is a scenario, however remote, where Koblinski adopts a new 10b5-1 plan as director with a higher selling rate. Directors do adopt selling plans. However, (1) his CEO transition suggests he may be transitioning out of the company entirely, reducing equity urgency, (2) the 90-day cooling-off limits the window, and (3) the question asks about 'CEO Koblinski' which he no longer is. Even in the most aggressive interpretation, the probability is very low.

Koblinski is not CEO. His plan expired. No selling since December. Question asks about 'CEO Koblinski' — neither condition applies. Near-zero probability.

This is effectively resolved NO already. The market asks about CEO Koblinski's selling pace — he is not CEO and has no selling plan. The probability is at the floor, with only a tiny edge case for resolution ambiguity.

The CEO transition is dispositive. No active selling plan. Even adopting a new plan requires 90-day cooling-off and wouldn't reach 100K/week in the remaining window. The question's premise has been negated by real-world events.