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KRMN Forecast Markets

Karman Holdings Inc.

4
Active Markets
3
Resolved
41%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will KRMN announce a contract award explicitly tied to the Golden Dome program by September 30, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
23%20%after Q4 FY2025 earnings release
92% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will KRMN's G&A as a percentage of revenue remain above 15% in Q4 FY2025?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
70%68%after Q4 FY2025 earnings release
92% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will KRMN CEO Koblinski's 10b5-1 selling pace exceed 100,000 shares per week on average before September 30, 2026?

Active
3%
Likely No
11%3%after Q4 FY2025 earnings release
96% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any prime contractor announce a dual-sourcing initiative for components currently sole-sourced from KRMN by December 31, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
15%12%after Q4 FY2025 earnings release
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will KRMN's net leverage ratio exceed 3.5x adjusted EBITDA at FY2025 year-end?

Resolved
18%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.672
Mar 25, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will KRMN report Q4 FY2025 revenue growth above 25% year-over-year?

Resolved
87%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.017
Mar 25, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will KRMN guide FY2026 revenue growth of 20% or higher at their Q4 FY2025 earnings call?

Resolved
76%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.058
Mar 25, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 30, 2026
Will KRMN's G&A as a percentage of revenue remain above 15% in Q4 FY2025?
Prediction: 68%
Apr 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will KRMN's net leverage ratio exceed 3.5x adjusted EBITDA at FY2025 year-end?
YESBrier: 0.67
Apr 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will KRMN report Q4 FY2025 revenue growth above 25% year-over-year?
YESBrier: 0.02
May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will KRMN guide FY2026 revenue growth of 20% or higher at their Q4 FY2025 earnings call?
YESBrier: 0.06
Oct 31, 2026
Will KRMN announce a contract award explicitly tied to the Golden Dome program by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Oct 31, 2026
Will KRMN CEO Koblinski's 10b5-1 selling pace exceed 100,000 shares per week on average before September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 3%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any prime contractor announce a dual-sourcing initiative for components currently sole-sourced from KRMN by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 12%