Will any Kohl's insider make an open-market stock purchase by end of CY2026?

Q4 FY2025 delivered the strongest financial results in years: EPS doubled to $1.62, cash up $540M to $674M, OCF $1.4B, revolver fully exited. If insiders were ever going to make a conviction purchase, this is the ideal setup -- strong results, low stock price near multi-year lows, turnaround narrative with genuine financial backing. Yet there are zero new insider purchases. CEO Bender's 6+ year zero-purchase pattern across his entire tenure (board member since 2019) suggests this is structural unwillingness, not timing. The post-earnings blackout window lifts late March 2026, creating the first informed buying opportunity with strong Q4 data. The SEVP Stores retirement could bring a new hire who purchases. But the dominant signal is: if the best results in years don't prompt buying, what will? Slight downward revision from 20%.

The information value of non-buying increases with better results. At 20% prior, we already assessed this as unlikely. The Q4 data strengthens the non-buying signal: $1.4B OCF and $674M cash demonstrate genuine financial improvement, yet no insider has made a purchase. The CY2026 timeframe gives ~10 more months. Possible catalysts for a purchase: (1) new executive hire from SEVP Stores succession, (2) board member change, (3) stock price decline to extreme levels prompting token buy. But these are speculative against a robust 6+ year pattern of zero purchases. The institutional inertia against insider buying at Kohl's appears deeply embedded in the corporate culture.

This market is asking whether a pattern that has persisted across 6+ years, multiple CEOs, dramatically different financial conditions, and through both strong and weak quarters will break. The Q4 results provide the strongest possible test of this hypothesis -- genuinely good numbers against a low stock price -- and the pattern holds. Zero purchases. The sibling market calibration tells us to weight revealed behavior over narrative, and the revealed behavior here is unambiguous: insiders at Kohl's do not buy stock on the open market. This appears to be a deeply embedded corporate norm. I lower my probability below 20% -- the new data actually makes a purchase LESS likely because the best catalyst scenario (strong results + low price) has occurred without triggering a purchase.

The prior 20% already reflected the strong non-buying pattern. Q4 results modestly strengthen the bear case: if $1.62 EPS (doubling), $674M cash, and $1.4B OCF don't prompt a single insider purchase, the cultural barrier to buying appears very high. The SEVP Stores retirement is the most plausible path to YES -- a new hire might purchase as a conviction signal. But new executive hires typically receive RSU grants, not open-market purchases. The CY2026 window extends through December, giving time for potential board refreshment. I maintain close to the prior estimate with a slight downward revision.

Applying the sibling market calibration lesson here is tricky -- the lesson was that we over-anchored on guidance math for the comps market. For insider purchases, the equivalent lesson would be: don't over-anchor on the historical non-buying pattern if there's a credible catalyst for change. The strongest catalyst would be a new CEO who breaks the pattern, but Bender was just appointed in late 2025 and hasn't bought in 6+ years. The financial results that just dropped are genuinely strong and could theoretically motivate a token purchase from a director. But token director purchases at distressed retailers are rare -- directors typically wait for stock price recovery, not bottom-fishing. I lean toward the 15-18% range.

I want to avoid over-adjusting from the prior 20%. The new data modestly strengthens the case against a purchase but doesn't fundamentally change the analysis. The base rate for insider purchases at mid-cap retailers is probably 15-25% in any given year -- some companies have cultures of insider buying, others don't. Kohl's clearly falls in the 'don't' category. The improved financial results make the continued absence more informative but the market had 10 months remaining regardless. The SEVP succession and potential board changes create non-zero probability of a pattern break. I stay near the prior with a slight downward adjustment.

Strong Q4 results with zero insider buying response strengthens the case that insiders won't buy. CEO Bender's 6+ year pattern is the anchor. SEVP retirement is the best YES catalyst but new hires typically get RSUs, not open-market purchases. Slight downward revision from 20%.

The revealed preference signal is clear: Kohl's insiders don't buy stock on the open market. 10 insiders, 6+ years for the CEO, zero purchases across varying financial conditions. The Q4 improvement makes this pattern more informative. Residual probability reflects potential board changes or new hires.

Post-earnings blackout lifts late March 2026, creating the first window where insiders could act on the strong Q4 data. CY2026 extends through December -- 10 months is meaningful time. But the 6-year pattern across multiple leadership regimes suggests corporate culture, not individual reluctance. Slightly below prior 20%.