Will LMND report Q4 2025 in-force premium (IFP) growth above 30% YoY?

The guided range top ($1,223M) is $4.2M below the 30% threshold ($1,227.2M). Management has beaten guidance every quarter with meaningful raises -- initial IFP guidance was $1.203-1.208B, raised to $1.218-1.223B ($15M raise). The beat-and-raise pattern is the strongest signal. Record customer additions (176K+) in Q3 provide momentum into Q4, and 24% customer growth compounding with 5% premium per customer growth delivers ~29-30% organic IFP growth before cross-sell effects. Management's 2026 guidance of 30%+ CAGR creates incentive to demonstrate 30% was achieved in 2025. Clean-the-book non-renewal headwind is real but expected and likely priced into guidance.

The guidance math is the critical anchor: $1,218-1,223M guided vs. $1,227M required for 30%. The $4-9M gap is small but not trivial. Crucially, the current guidance is already the RAISED version -- management already incorporated their upside view when raising from $1,203-1,208B. The residual beat above raised guidance may be smaller than the beat above initial guidance. The clean-the-book homeowners non-renewal program completing in Q4 creates a specific headwind to net IFP additions that may not have been fully captured in earlier quarters. Seasonal Q4 patterns (holiday slowdown in new policy purchases) could constrain net customer additions below Q3's record. The guided range deliberately falls short of 30%, suggesting management sees 30% as possible but not certain.

Management's 2026 CAGR guidance of 30%+ is the strongest forward indicator. To credibly guide 30%+ CAGR at the Q4 earnings call (Feb 19), they need to show 30% was achieved in 2025 -- otherwise the guidance lacks credibility and the acceleration narrative breaks. Management controls multiple levers: marketing spend timing, policy start dates, non-renewal pacing. The $4M gap between guided range top and 30% threshold is within management's operational discretion. Record Q3 customer additions (176K+) and expanding car insurance footprint provide incremental IFP that may not be fully reflected in conservative guidance. The base effect (adding 30% to $944M requires $283M incremental) is real but manageable given demonstrated momentum: they added ~$216M from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 in a single quarter comparison.

The math is tight: $1,227M needed for 30% vs. guided $1,218-1,223M. Management has beaten every quarter, but the gap between guided range and threshold ($4-9M) represents the key uncertainty. The 8-quarter acceleration trend from 22% to 30% shows genuine momentum, not just sandbagging. Customer growth at 24% with premium per customer at +5% gives roughly 29-30% compound IFP growth, right at the threshold. The clean-the-book non-renewal program completing in Q4 is a headwind but likely anticipated in guidance. Slight upward bias from the beat pattern but genuinely close to a coin flip.

The guided range deliberately straddles but falls short of 30%. If management were confident about exceeding 30%, the raised guidance would have been set above $1,227M. The fact that it tops at $1,223M suggests management sees 30% as achievable but not certain. However, the 2026 CAGR guidance of 30%+ means management plans to maintain this trajectory, providing forward incentive. The non-renewal headwind is a specific Q4 concern not present in prior quarters. Insider selling of $23.4M in December does not specifically indicate IFP concern but reflects general profit-taking during stock appreciation. Balanced factors produce a true coin-flip assessment.

The beat quantum is the critical variable. Management raised year-end IFP guidance by $15M from initial ($1,203-1,208B to $1,218-1,223B). If the actual exceeds the raised guidance by even $5-10M -- consistent with historical beat patterns -- IFP lands at $1,228-1,233M, crossing the 30% threshold. Car insurance expansion to additional states in 2025 and continued European growth provide incremental IFP that conservative management guidance may not fully capture. The 70% book growth over 2 years with <4% headcount increase demonstrates operating leverage that enables continued marketing investment to drive customer acquisition above guided levels.

8-quarter acceleration trend is powerful evidence, but the math requires exceeding guided range by $4-9M to hit 30%. Management beats guidance every quarter, but the current guidance is already raised. The non-renewal headwind completing in Q4 and seasonal slowdown create specific Q4 drag. The threshold is right at the edge of achievability based on guidance math.

Management's beat-and-raise pattern is well-established across all quarters. The $4M gap between guided range top ($1,223M) and 30% threshold ($1,227M) is a small amount relative to the total IFP base. New product momentum from car insurance and Synthetic Agents provides incremental IFP not fully reflected in conservative guidance. Management's 2026 30%+ CAGR target incentivizes hitting 30% in Q4 2025.

The key tension is between the 30% threshold requiring $1,227M and guidance topping at $1,223M -- a $4M gap. Management has consistently beaten guidance, and record Q3 customer additions (176K+) likely carried momentum into Q4. Premium per customer rising 5% compounds with customer growth. However, base effect and non-renewal headwinds create drag. The balance of factors produces a marginally positive lean.