Will the Credit Card Competition Act receive a committee vote or floor vote in either chamber of Congress by December 31, 2026?

The committee assessed 25-40% passage probability within 24 months, but passage requires a vote first — a vote is more likely than passage but the window here is shorter (10.5 months vs 24). Presidential endorsement is genuinely new and material, but historical base rate for financial services bills reaching a vote is low. The amendment-to-must-pass-legislation pathway (NDAA, appropriations) provides ~2 realistic windows in 2026. Banking lobby is 'very united' in opposition. No hearing scheduled as of analysis date. Adjusting the committee's 25-40% passage range upward for vote probability but downward for shorter window yields ~20-25%.

The amendment pathway deserves more weight than standalone committee action. The Durbin Amendment (debit interchange) precedent shows financial services regulation can be attached to must-pass legislation. NDAA markup (spring) and appropriations/omnibus (fall) provide two concrete windows. Presidential endorsement creates political cover for amendment sponsors. However, banking lobby will fight at every stage and committee chairs control amendment processes. Standalone committee vote probability ~8-12%, amendment pathway ~10-15%, combined ~20-27%. Taking the midpoint.

Scenario analysis: YES requires either (1) committee chair allows markup despite banking lobby pressure, or (2) floor amendment to must-pass legislation succeeds procedurally. For (1): no hearing scheduled, banking lobby is united, committee chairs historically defer to financial industry — maybe 8-12% probability. For (2): must-pass legislation offers 2 windows but leadership controls floor amendments — maybe 10-15%. Combined accounting for overlap: ~18-25%. The Myth Meter's identification of the narrative gap (management says 'little progress' while bill gets presidential endorsement) suggests markets may be underpricing this risk, but the legislative process has structural inertia.

The CCCA has been introduced multiple times since 2023 and never advanced to a vote. Presidential endorsement is a genuine new factor but insufficient alone — Congress is a co-equal branch and the banking lobby is powerful and united. The base rate for financial services bills getting a vote within one calendar year is approximately 10-15%. Presidential endorsement and bipartisan sponsorship add 5-10pp. The amendment pathway to must-pass legislation adds some probability. No hearing even scheduled as of analysis date, which is concerning for a Dec 31 deadline.

Anchoring on demonstrated historical pattern: the CCCA has failed to advance multiple times since 2023. The banking lobby spends hundreds of millions on lobbying and committee chairs control the agenda. Presidential endorsement is nice symbolism but this president has many competing legislative priorities. The Evercore analyst called it 'all but dead' and while the Myth Meter flags this as a narrative gap, the analyst's assessment may reflect genuine understanding of the legislative process rather than complacency. The amendment pathway is the only realistic wild card, and even that requires leadership cooperation.

The committee's 25-40% passage probability within 24 months provides a calibrated anchor. A vote is more likely than passage (bills can fail after a vote), but the window is shorter (10.5 months vs 24 months). These roughly offset. Taking the lower end of the committee range (25%) as a ceiling for passage probability, vote probability is perhaps 1.2-1.5x higher within the same window, but compressing for the shorter timeline yields ~22-30% for vote within 24 months, scaled to ~16-22% for 10.5 months. The 5-of-6 lens cross-validation on regulatory materiality increases confidence in the assessment.

Presidential endorsement is new and material but bill has failed to advance since 2023. Banking lobby is united in opposition. No hearing scheduled. Must-pass legislation amendment pathway adds some probability via 2 legislative windows. Base rate for financial services bills getting votes is low. Net assessment around 20%.

Historical pattern is the strongest signal: bill introduced in 2023, gets attention, stalls. 2026 reintroduction follows same pattern. Presidential endorsement is a new variable but Congress doesn't automatically comply. The 10.5-month window is tight for a bill with no hearing scheduled. More likely than not this follows the same stalling pattern as prior sessions.

Two pathways to resolution: committee vote (~10% chance in 10 months) or must-pass legislation amendment (~12% chance across 2 windows in spring and fall 2026). Combined probability approximately 20%. Presidential endorsement is a positive factor, banking lobby opposition is a negative factor. These partially offset.