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MA Forecast Markets

Mastercard Incorporated

9
Active Markets
27%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 16, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will Mastercard's Value-Added Services organic revenue growth fall below 12% YoY in any quarter during FY2026?

Active
13%
Likely No
95% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will the Credit Card Competition Act receive a committee vote or floor vote in either chamber of Congress by December 31, 2026?

Active
21%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will the Discover network (under Capital One ownership) announce a third-party issuer partnership for credit or debit card processing by June 30, 2027?

Active
11%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jul 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Mastercard achieve FY2026 net revenue growth of 14% or above on a currency-neutral basis?

Active
45%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal grant permission to appeal the Mastercard interchange 'by object' ruling by December 31, 2026?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Mastercard report payment network revenue growth below 9% YoY in either Q1 or Q2 2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
92% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will a second top-20 US card issuer announce migration of debit or credit volume away from Visa or Mastercard to an alternative network by December 31, 2026?

Active
7%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will Mastercard report cross-border volume growth below 8% YoY in any quarter during the first half of FY2026?

Active
5%
Likely No
98% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Mastercard's forward P/E ratio compress below 35x at any month-end close during 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will Mastercard report payment network revenue growth below 9% YoY in either Q1 or Q2 2026?
Prediction: 40%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Mastercard report cross-border volume growth below 8% YoY in any quarter during the first half of FY2026?
Prediction: 5%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the Credit Card Competition Act receive a committee vote or floor vote in either chamber of Congress by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 21%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal grant permission to appeal the Mastercard interchange 'by object' ruling by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 68%
Jan 31, 2027
Will a second top-20 US card issuer announce migration of debit or credit volume away from Visa or Mastercard to an alternative network by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 7%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Mastercard's forward P/E ratio compress below 35x at any month-end close during 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Feb 28, 2027
Will Mastercard's Value-Added Services organic revenue growth fall below 12% YoY in any quarter during FY2026?
Prediction: 13%
Feb 28, 2027
Will Mastercard achieve FY2026 net revenue growth of 14% or above on a currency-neutral basis?
Prediction: 45%
Jul 31, 2027
Will the Discover network (under Capital One ownership) announce a third-party issuer partnership for credit or debit card processing by June 30, 2027?
Prediction: 11%