Will Mastercard achieve FY2026 net revenue growth of 14% or above on a currency-neutral basis?

Currency-neutral net revenue growth includes inorganic but strips FX. Management guides organic cc at 'high end of low double digits' (~12-13%). Recent acquisitions (Recorded Future, etc.) should add ~1-2 ppt of inorganic revenue, putting the base case at 13-15% cc total. VAS organic grew 15-19% and is the primary growth engine. Payment network growth halved from 16% to 9% through FY2025, and Capital One migration creates ~2% headwind building through 2026. The 14% threshold requires the high end of both organic and inorganic contributions — achievable but not the central case.

Decomposition approach: FY2025 cc growth was ~15%, decelerating from 17% to 15% through the year. Recorded Future (~$300M revenue run rate, acquired late 2024) should contribute ~1.5 ppt inorganic in 2026. Organic 12-13% + inorganic 1-2% = 13-15% cc total. However, achieving 14%+ requires multiple vectors to align simultaneously — organic at high end AND inorganic contribution fully materializing AND Capital One headwind not exceeding expectations. The committee's assessment that multiple assumptions must hold simultaneously makes this below 50%.

Scenario-weighted approach: Bull case (40% weight, 14%+ cc) — management beats guidance by 1-2 ppt, VAS organic sustains 17%+, inorganic adds 1.5-2 ppt. Base case (45% weight, 13-14% cc) — guidance met, inorganic at midpoint, Capital One drag manageable. Bear case (15% weight, 12-13% cc) — payment network growth falls below 9%, Capital One headwind exceeds expectations, VAS organic moderates. Weighted P(>=14%) = 0.40 * 1.0 + 0.45 * 0.1 + 0.15 * 0 = ~0.44. The asymmetry comes from Capital One being harder to offset than VAS tailwinds are to sustain.

Management guides 12-13% organic cc. Add inorganic 1-2 ppt. Midpoint is 13.5% cc total. Getting to 14% requires either above-midpoint organic OR above-midpoint inorganic — not both, just one. That makes it roughly a coin-flip. Capital One headwind is building and payment network deceleration from 16% to 9% is severe, but VAS momentum (15-19% organic) and management's typical 1-2 ppt guidance beat pattern roughly balance the negatives. Genuinely uncertain outcome.

The market at 38x P/E clearly assigns >50% probability to above-guide delivery. While market pricing does not determine reality, Mastercard's persistent guidance beat pattern is the strongest signal. Historical beats of 1-2 ppt applied to 12-13% organic guidance = 13-15% organic actual. Adding inorganic 1-2 ppt = 14-17% cc total. The Capital One headwind is real but management says contractual offsets exist, and the ~2% headwind is already embedded in guidance. The probability tilts slightly above 50% because the guidance beat pattern is persistent and inorganic adds a discrete uplift layer.

The deceleration trajectory is the dominant signal: FY2025 quarterly cc growth decelerated from 17% to 15%. Management explicitly guided H1 2026 lower than H2 due to tougher comps. If Q1 comes in at 11-12% cc and Q4 at 13-14% cc, full-year organic average could be 12-13%. Adding inorganic at 1-1.5 ppt yields 13-14.5% cc total. The 14% threshold requires the higher end of inorganic contribution AND organic not decelerating further. The Stress Scanner and Regulatory Reader flagging fee compression vectors adds downside risk to revenue growth.

FY2025 cc growth averaged ~15.75%. Management guides 12-13% organic for FY2026 — a ~3 ppt step-down. Add inorganic ~1.5 ppt. Base case: ~13.5-14.5% cc total. 14% is right at the center of this range. Near coin-flip, tilting slightly below due to payment network deceleration headwinds.

Management guides conservatively and typically beats by 1-2 ppt. Organic: 13-14% actual likely. Inorganic: +1-1.5 ppt. Total cc: 14-15.5%. But Capital One headwind building through 2026 creates downside risk, and payment network growth at 9% and potentially still falling constrains the volume-linked ~84% of revenue. Slightly below coin-flip.

VAS growth (15-19% organic) is the key offset to payment network deceleration. If VAS sustains 17%+ organic and inorganic adds 1.5 ppt, 14% is achievable. If VAS moderates to 15% and inorganic is only 1 ppt, likely 13-13.5% cc. Capital One creating ~2% headwind and deceleration from 17% to 15% cc in FY2025 tip the balance slightly below 50%.