Will MongoDB's FY2026 10-K filing contain any auditor emphasis-of-matter paragraph, accounting policy change, or auditor change?

Base rate for emphasis-of-matter paragraphs in large-cap tech filings is ~10-15%. Triple CFO turnover elevates this, but the critical counterweight is that NO material weaknesses or significant deficiencies were disclosed in any Q1-Q3 quarterly filings during FY2026 — interim audit work has not surfaced issues. The sales incentive change eliminating breakage revenue was implemented in FY2025 and already reflected in prior filings, reducing the likelihood of a new accounting policy change disclosure. The Baxter litigation is in discovery but securities class actions rarely trigger emphasis-of-matter unless liability is probable and estimable. MongoDB's ~$2B+ cash position makes going-concern language implausible. The hiring of internal audit and compliance directors suggests proactive investment in controls.

Evaluating each resolution criterion separately: (1) Emphasis-of-matter/unusual CAM: CAMs are required under AS 3101 but the question asks for items 'beyond standard scope' — revenue recognition CAMs are standard for SaaS; an unusual CAM related to management transitions or litigation would be atypical. (2) Accounting policy change vs. FY2025: breakage change was FY2025 event; new leadership could introduce classification changes but this is speculative. (3) Auditor change: very unlikely mid-filing cycle. (4) Material weakness: no interim disclosures suggest this. The biggest risk is the Baxter discovery potentially surfacing something that triggers emphasis language, combined with the broad scope of resolution criteria covering four separate categories. This breadth of criteria modestly elevates probability.

The strongest counter-argument to a clean filing is the specific combination of triple CFO turnover, active securities litigation, and 52% SBC-to-revenue ratio. However, companies with new C-suite often receive MORE auditor scrutiny, not less — and 3 quarters of interim work showing no issues is strong evidence that enhanced scrutiny has not found problems. The CAO (Thomas Bull) has been stable throughout, providing continuity in the accounting function. His routine, small-scale trading (555 shares sold via 10b5-1) shows no alarm. The company's proactive hiring of internal audit and compliance leadership suggests forward-looking investment in controls infrastructure. The $1.27B SBC is large but is a well-understood accounting treatment under ASC 718, not a novel policy requiring disclosure.

Clean quarterly filings throughout FY2026 is the dominant signal. Auditors perform substantive procedures during interim reviews — if material issues existed, they would have surfaced in the 10-Q filings. The CAO has been stable and his trading is routine. The Baxter litigation is a risk but securities class actions at this stage rarely trigger emphasis-of-matter unless liability is probable and estimable under ASC 450. MongoDB's financial position makes going-concern language implausible. The breakage revenue policy change was already a FY2025 event. The most likely 'unusual' item would be a CAM related to revenue recognition complexity, but this is standard for SaaS companies and would not resolve as YES under the resolution criteria.

Base rate for these events at major tech companies with Big 4 auditors is approximately 10-12%. Triple CFO turnover adds meaningful incremental risk — academic research associates CFO changes with roughly 2x elevated restatement risk, which translates to perhaps 1.5x elevated risk for the broader set of audit items in the resolution criteria. But the absence of ANY interim findings across 3 quarters of 10-Q filings is very strong evidence against. The litigation risk is real but quantitatively small relative to MongoDB's balance sheet. The accounting policy change related to breakage was already FY2025. The broad resolution criteria (4 categories) provide more surface area for a YES outcome, but each individual category has low probability.

Estimating each resolution criterion independently: (1) Emphasis-of-matter or unusual CAM beyond standard scope: ~8% incremental above standard — the litigation and CFO turnover could prompt auditor commentary but typically do not unless controls are affected. (2) Accounting policy change vs. FY2025: ~5% — possible if new leadership introduces classification changes, but major changes are unlikely in the first year. (3) Auditor change: ~3% — very unlikely mid-cycle with no disclosed concerns. (4) Material weakness or significant deficiency: ~5% — unlikely given clean 10-Qs. Combined probability (assuming partial independence): approximately 18-20%. The breadth of criteria slightly elevates this above what any single criterion would suggest.

Clean 10-Qs throughout FY2026 are the strongest signal against unusual audit items. No material weaknesses disclosed. CFO turnover is concerning but CAO has been stable. Baxter litigation in discovery but not at materiality threshold for emphasis language. Base rate ~12% elevated to ~18% by governance concerns and broad resolution criteria.

Triple CFO turnover is the biggest risk factor — academic research shows 2-3x elevated restatement risk with CFO changes. But restatement risk is a higher bar than emphasis-of-matter. The breakage revenue change was already a FY2025 event, already reflected in comparatives. Company is proactively hiring internal audit and compliance leadership, suggesting investment in controls rather than reactive firefighting. The most likely path to YES is through litigation-related emphasis language, but this requires Baxter case to advance significantly before filing deadline.

The broadness of resolution criteria (any of 4 items) means the union probability exceeds any individual criterion. But the dominant factor is 3 clean quarterly filings — auditors work throughout the year and would have flagged issues during interim reviews. Probability slightly above base rate due to triple CFO turnover, active litigation, and the fact that both CEO and CFO are signing their first annual filing under elevated governance scrutiny.