Will MongoDB's full-year FY2026 stock-based compensation exceed 50% of total revenue?

The annualized SBC estimate of ~$1.27B against guided revenue of ~$2.437B yields ~52%, already 2 percentage points above the 50% threshold. For this to resolve NO, either the annualized SBC figure must be materially overstated or FY2026 revenue must significantly exceed guidance. Revenue growth at 21-22% outpaces SBC growth at 10-12%, but this differential has not yet produced a crossing below 50% -- the committee explicitly concluded this. The new CEO's 44,096-share RSU grant and ongoing hiring equity create upward pressure on Q4 SBC. The most likely path to NO would require revenue beating the top of guidance by $50M+ while SBC simultaneously coming in below the annualized estimate -- a conjunction of two events with modest individual probabilities.

The 52% annualized estimate provides a meaningful buffer above the 50% threshold, but it is an extrapolation from quarterly data, not a precise full-year figure. SBC can be lumpy due to grant timing, vesting cliffs, and forfeitures. If Q4 FY2026 SBC came in 10-15% below the quarterly average (due to timing or accelerated vesting in earlier quarters), the full-year ratio could approach 50%. However, the committee found no evidence of front-loaded SBC, and the new CEO RSU grants push in the opposite direction. Revenue also needs to land within guidance -- if it comes in light at $2.434B, the ratio increases further. The base case remains above 50%, but there is a non-trivial ~25-30% chance that quarterly extrapolation overstates the actual full-year SBC figure.

Five of seven lenses independently identified SBC as the defining structural issue, and the committee reclassified SBC normalization from 'likely' to 'hope, not finding.' The quantitative evidence is stark: SBC is ~2x the next closest SaaS peer, ~2.9x non-GAAP operating income, and buybacks offset only 27% of dilution despite $345M spent. The revenue growth vs SBC growth differential (21-22% vs 10-12%) is directionally positive but mathematically insufficient to push below 50% in FY2026 -- at 52% starting point, you would need roughly 2 additional years at current differentials to cross below 50%. The only realistic downside scenario is quarterly data overstating full-year SBC by a significant margin, which lacks supporting evidence.

The math is straightforward: ~$1.27B annualized SBC / ~$2.437B revenue = ~52%. To get below 50%, you need SBC at or below ~$1.219B -- that is $51M less than the annualized estimate. There is no identified mechanism to produce a $51M shortfall in SBC. The committee found SBC growth at 10-12% YoY, no evidence of normalization trajectory, and the new CEO compensation package adds incremental SBC. The question is essentially asking whether a 4% estimation error exists in the annualized SBC figure favoring the downside. While possible, the upside risks (new hires, CEO RSUs, grant timing) are more concrete than the downside risks.

The 52% annualized estimate is the anchor, but annualized quarterly data can deviate from actual full-year figures. SaaS companies often have seasonality in equity grants (annual refresh cycles in Q1-Q2, performance grants in Q3-Q4). If MongoDB's grant cycle is weighted toward earlier quarters, Q4 SBC could be lighter. However, the committee analyzed Q1-Q3 data and found consistent levels, not lumpy patterns. The $345M buyback program partially absorbs dilution but does not reduce SBC expense on the income statement. Revenue at the high end of guidance ($2.439B) would reduce the ratio by ~0.1pp -- immaterial. The probability is solidly above 50% given the current estimate is already above threshold.

The cross-lens convergence is the most compelling evidence. When 5 of 7 independent analytical lenses flag the same issue, and the committee actively debated normalization and concluded it is 'hope not finding,' the structural nature of the SBC level is well-established. The specific question of whether FY2026 exceeds 50% is almost a formality given the ~52% estimate. The 2pp buffer above threshold means estimation error would need to entirely favor the downside. MongoDB's cash-based RSU tax settlement strategy and ongoing buybacks demonstrate management awareness of the problem, but these are dilution management tools, not SBC reduction tools. The actual SBC expense line in the 10-K will reflect the same elevated levels seen in quarterly filings.

Annualized SBC is ~$1.27B vs ~$2.437B revenue = ~52%. Already above the 50% threshold by 2 percentage points. Committee found no evidence of normalization. New CEO RSU grants push SBC higher. Revenue growth outpaces SBC growth but hasn't crossed below 50% yet. Strongly favors YES resolution.

The 52% estimate is based on quarterly extrapolation which introduces uncertainty. SBC growth at 10-12% vs revenue growth at 21-22% is the key favorable dynamic. But even with this differential, the math does not produce a sub-50% ratio in FY2026. The 2pp margin above threshold is small enough that estimation error could matter, but the direction of known risks (CEO RSUs, hiring) favors higher SBC.

SBC at ~2x the nearest peer and ~2.9x non-GAAP operating income is structurally embedded. The $345M buyback offset only 27% of dilution. The committee's 'hope not finding' conclusion on normalization is decisive. At 52% estimated, the NO scenario requires either significant revenue upside beyond guidance or unexpected SBC reduction -- neither has supporting evidence.