Will MongoDB's net ARR expansion rate fall below 115% in any quarter reported during H1 FY2027?

The net ARR expansion rate is at 120% and improving (up from 118%), so a drop below 115% requires a 5+ percentage point decline within 2-3 quarters. The metric is dominated by large enterprise accounts (2,694 >$100K, 320 >$1M) where switching costs are highest and the Moat Mapper classifies competitive position as DEFENSIBLE with E2 evidence. Workloads from FY2025 are growing faster and longer than prior cohorts, which provides forward momentum for expansion. However, the absence of gross retention disclosure is a genuine blind spot — if gross retention is materially below 100%, a macro shock could expose underlying churn that the net figure masks. April 2025 showed consumption sensitivity, and the consumption-based model means expansion rates could compress during stress. But a 5pp drop from an improving baseline within 2 quarters is a substantial move requiring a significant catalyst.

The unresolved debate between Moat Mapper (DEFENSIBLE) and Gravy Gauge (CONDITIONAL) is directly relevant here. If switching costs are truly defensible, net expansion should hold above 115% absent severe macro stress. But if revenue durability is conditional on consumption patterns, a macro slowdown could compress expansion meaningfully. The key risk factor is the undisclosed gross retention — 4 lenses independently flagged this gap, giving HIGH confidence it is a genuine blind spot. If gross retention is, say, 85%, then the 120% net figure reflects ~35pp of expansion from existing customers, and a modest reduction in upsell activity could push net expansion below 115%. The 7-month resolution window (through Sep 2026) gives enough time for a macro event to materialize, but the improving trajectory and record self-serve acquisition provide countervailing tailwinds. I weight this slightly higher than base because of the gross retention uncertainty.

Historically, MongoDB's net ARR expansion has been remarkably stable — moving from 118% to 120% over recent quarters with no single-quarter drops of 5+ percentage points visible in the reported data. The question requires a below-115% print in at least one of two quarters. The enterprise customer concentration (>$100K accounts growing 20%+ YoY, >$1M accounts growing 24% YoY) means the expansion metric is anchored by customers with high switching costs and multi-year contracts. The self-serve channel is at its highest acquisition rate in 6+ years, feeding the bottom of the expansion funnel. Workloads from FY2025 growing faster and longer than prior cohorts provides additional forward momentum. While the consumption model creates macro sensitivity, the April 2025 episode did not push expansion below 115%. The PostgreSQL competitive threat operates on a 3-5 year horizon per the committee. A sub-115% print would require either a severe recession or an acceleration of competitive displacement that the analysis does not support in this timeframe.

Net expansion at 120% and trending up. Needs a 5pp drop to trigger YES. The metric is enterprise-weighted where switching costs are genuinely high — document model architecture creates real lock-in. Workloads growing faster and longer than prior cohorts means the expansion pipeline is strengthening, not weakening. The gross retention blind spot is real but has been a blind spot for years without the net number falling. The consumption model is the primary risk vector — April 2025 showed sensitivity — but even that didn't push below 115%. Two quarters provide two chances for a bad print, but also two quarters of continued enterprise expansion momentum. Probability is low but non-trivial given the 7-month window and undisclosed gross retention.

I'm weighting the downside risks more heavily. The gross retention non-disclosure is not just a data gap — it's an asymmetric disclosure incentive. Management emphasizes net expansion while withholding gross retention, and insiders are net sellers. If gross retention were strong, they'd disclose it. The consumption-based model means that even without competitive erosion, a macro slowdown could compress expansion rates. The cross-lens conflict between DEFENSIBLE moat and CONDITIONAL revenue is unresolved, and this question is precisely where that tension manifests. Two quarters is a reasonable window for a macro hiccup. I also note that SBC funds the sales engine driving expansion (cross-lens insight X1) — any pullback in SBC-funded sales investment could reduce expansion rates. Still, 120% to below 115% is a big move in 2 quarters.

The improving trajectory (118% to 120%) with accelerating workload growth from FY2025 cohorts suggests the near-term direction is up or stable, not down. The 62,500+ total customers with self-serve at highest rate in 6+ years means the top of funnel is healthy. Enterprise customer growth of 20-24% YoY means the expansion-weighted portion of the base is itself growing. For net expansion to drop below 115%, you'd need either significant churn acceleration (possible but unobservable given gross retention opacity) or a sharp consumption pullback across the customer base. The committee assessment of DEFENSIBLE competitive position with E2 evidence (2/2 agreement) suggests switching costs are real and would prevent rapid erosion in this timeframe.

120% net expansion, improving trend, enterprise-dominated metric with high switching costs. A 5pp drop in 2 quarters is a big ask. Workloads growing faster and longer provides forward momentum. Gross retention blind spot is real but hasn't caused a breach historically. Low probability but not negligible given consumption model sensitivity.

The gross retention opacity is the biggest uncertainty. Four lenses flagged it independently. If hidden churn is significant, a macro event could push net expansion below 115% quickly. The consumption-based model amplifies this risk. Insiders are net sellers. But the improving trend and growing enterprise base provide a buffer. Assigning slightly higher probability due to the unknown gross retention factor.

Net expansion at 120% needs a 5pp drop. Enterprise accounts growing 20-24% YoY stabilize the metric. New workloads growing faster than prior cohorts. The question covers 2 quarters, giving 2 chances for a bad print, but also 2 quarters of enterprise momentum. Consumption risk is the primary concern but April 2025 precedent held. Low probability.