What will Molina Healthcare's 2026 full-year diluted EPS guidance midpoint be?
Black swan — CA retroactive Medi-Cal rate clawback drove massive GAAP EPS reduction. FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance of $3.20 vs non-GAAP ~$5.00. Market specified GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations.
Prediction Score
Lessons Learned
The models catastrophically anchored on the FY2025 reset guidance of $14.00 as a floor without considering that GAAP vs. non-GAAP distinctions could create massive divergence during extraordinary events. The prediction context focused exclusively on operational metrics (MCRs, rate-trend gaps, policy headwinds) but contained zero discussion of GAAP accounting risk, retroactive rate adjustments, or historical precedent for California Medi-Cal clawbacks — despite California representing ~40% of total revenue. All nine models treated this as an operational forecast when it was fundamentally an accounting/regulatory risk question, and the resolution criteria's explicit 'GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations' specification should have triggered deeper investigation into non-GAAP reconciliation items and state payment integrity actions. Future prediction contexts for heavily regulated, government-dependent businesses must include a dedicated accounting & regulatory cliff risk section covering GAAP/non-GAAP divergence drivers, historical payment clawbacks, and contingent liabilities.
Final Estimate
Why This Question Matters
Forward EPS guidance is the single most information-dense data point for MOH. The 2026 guidance midpoint will embed management's assumptions on Medicaid rate adequacy, Marketplace repricing effectiveness, membership trajectory, and OBBBA impact — all key analytical uncertainties. If guidance is below $14 (the reset FY2025 level), it validates the FRAGILE framing. If guidance is above $16, it suggests the rate-trend gap is normalizing and revenue is CONDITIONAL with improving margins.
Estimate Distribution
Consensus Comparison
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
FY2025 EPS guidance was cut to $14.00, and management has indicated 2026 rates will be 'modestly in excess of trend,' suggesting some margin recovery. The 30% Marketplace rate hikes and 20% footprint reduction should improve the 95.6% Marketplace MCR. However, ACA subsidy expiration and pending work requirements create meaningful downside risk.
FY2025 guidance cut to $14.00 after three reductions driven by ~150 bps rate-trend gap and consolidated MCR of 92.6%. Management's aggressive Marketplace actions (30% rate hikes + 20% footprint reduction) should improve that segment's MCR materially, suggesting modest recovery from the $14.00 trough to $15-16 range.
FY2025 was reset to $14.00 establishing a trough baseline. Management's statement that 2026 rates will be 'modestly in excess of trend' suggests the 150 bps gap is narrowing, and aggressive Marketplace actions should materially improve that segment's 95.6% MCR. COO's purchase post-cut signals insider confidence in recovery.
Management's 2026 rate guidance of 'modestly in excess of trend' should narrow the 150 bps rate-trend gap. Aggressive Marketplace footprint reduction and rate hikes suggest stabilization. However, with consolidated MCR at 92.6% and margin compression ongoing, meaningful expansion beyond $14.00 baseline requires execution that management failed to deliver in 2025.
Management's 'modestly in excess of trend' suggests partial closure of the 150 bps rate-trend gap. Marketplace's 30% rate hikes + 20% footprint reduction materially improve that 95.6% MCR segment, while Medicaid's 90.5% MCR needs rate relief. COO insider buying post-cut signals bottoming, but 'modestly' suggests incremental improvement not full recovery.
FY2025 final guidance of $14.00 after three cuts establishes a realistic baseline. The 150 bps rate-trend gap is being addressed with 2026 rates 'modestly in excess of trend' and aggressive Marketplace actions. However, OBBBA work requirements and expired ACA subsidies create meaningful downside risk, preventing confidence in guidance materially above $14-15 range.
FY2025 guidance collapse to $14.00 (three cuts) establishes baseline extreme caution. Persistent 150 bps rate-trend gap with 'modest' rate increases suggests continued margin compression. Marketplace emergency measures stabilize but don't improve segment. OBBBA work requirements create mid-year disruption risk.
FY2025 collapsed from $24.50 to $14.00 due to medical cost inflation exceeding rate guidance. Marketplace 95.6% MCR unsustainable even with 30% rate hikes. Management credibility eroded by three consecutive cuts. Guidance likely conservative but <$14 remains plausible if rates again lag trend.
FY2025 $14.00 baseline with structural 150 bps rate-cost gap constrains upside. Management's 'modestly in excess of trend' suggests 2-4% improvement. Rate hikes and footprint reduction provide execution optionality but carry timing risk. Policy uncertainty creates downside tail.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the midpoint of Molina Healthcare's initial full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance range disclosed in the Q4 2025 earnings release or conference call (expected February 5, 2026). If a single point estimate is given rather than a range, that point estimate will be used. If no 2026 guidance is provided, resolves N/A. Guidance must be for GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations. Expressed in dollars to two decimal places.
Resolution Source
Molina Healthcare Q4 2025 earnings release, earnings call transcript, and investor presentation materials
Source Trigger
Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (Feb 5, 2026) — results vs. reset guidance; 2026 forward guidance
Full multi-lens equity analysis