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MOH Forecast Markets

Molina Healthcare

5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
44%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 23, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

5 markets analyzedConfidence: LOW
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will CMS issue OBBBA Medicaid work requirements guidance or approve state waiver applications by Q3 2026?

Active
88%
Likely Yes
78%88%after Q1 2026 earnings — Nebraska state implementation confirms CMS guidance emerging
95% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Congress extend ACA enhanced premium subsidies before Q4 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
22%20%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-23)
94% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will CMS RADV audit results for PY2018 result in material Medicare clawbacks (>$50M) for Molina by Q3 2026?

Active
18%
Likely No
28%18%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-23)
94% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Molina Healthcare's total membership exceed 5.0 million at the end of Q2 2026?

Active
50%
Likely No
55%50%after Q1 2026 earnings — revised Medicaid attrition guide
89% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Molina Healthcare lose a major state Medicaid contract (CA/TX/WA/NY) in 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
14%15%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-23)
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will Molina Healthcare's 2026 full-year diluted EPS guidance midpoint exceed $14.00?

Resolved
85%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.723
Feb 5, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Molina Healthcare's Medicaid rate-trend gap widen beyond 200 bps or rates fall below 5% by Q2 2026?

Resolved
33%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.449
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.60

Resolution Timeline

Feb 10, 2026RESOLVED
Will Molina Healthcare's 2026 full-year diluted EPS guidance midpoint exceed $14.00?
NOBrier: 0.72
Aug 15, 2026
Will Molina Healthcare's total membership exceed 5.0 million at the end of Q2 2026?
Prediction: 50%
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Molina Healthcare's Medicaid rate-trend gap widen beyond 200 bps or rates fall below 5% by Q2 2026?
YESBrier: 0.45
Oct 15, 2026
Will CMS issue OBBBA Medicaid work requirements guidance or approve state waiver applications by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 88%
Oct 15, 2026
Will Congress extend ACA enhanced premium subsidies before Q4 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Oct 15, 2026
Will CMS RADV audit results for PY2018 result in material Medicare clawbacks (>$50M) for Molina by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 18%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Molina Healthcare lose a major state Medicaid contract (CA/TX/WA/NY) in 2026?
Prediction: 15%