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MOH Forecast Markets
Molina Healthcare
6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
45%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will CMS issue OBBBA Medicaid work requirements guidance or approve state waiver applications by Q3 2026?
78%
Likely Yes
88% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Congress extend ACA enhanced premium subsidies before Q4 2026?
22%
Likely No
86% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will CMS RADV audit results for PY2018 result in material Medicare clawbacks (>$50M) for Molina by Q3 2026?
28%
Likely No
88% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Molina Healthcare's total membership exceed 5.0 million at the end of Q2 2026?
55%
Likely Yes
88% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Molina Healthcare's Medicaid rate-trend gap widen beyond 200 bps or rates fall below 5% by Q2 2026?
33%
Likely No
91% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will Molina Healthcare lose a major state Medicaid contract (CA/TX/WA/NY) in 2026?
14%
Likely No
83% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will Molina Healthcare's 2026 full-year diluted EPS guidance midpoint exceed $14.00?
85%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.723Feb 5, 2026
IG: 0.80
Resolution Timeline
Feb 10, 2026RESOLVED
Will Molina Healthcare's 2026 full-year diluted EPS guidance midpoint exceed $14.00? NOBrier: 0.72
Aug 15, 2026
Will Molina Healthcare's total membership exceed 5.0 million at the end of Q2 2026?Prediction: 55%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Molina Healthcare's Medicaid rate-trend gap widen beyond 200 bps or rates fall below 5% by Q2 2026?Prediction: 33%
Oct 15, 2026
Will CMS issue OBBBA Medicaid work requirements guidance or approve state waiver applications by Q3 2026?Prediction: 78%
Oct 15, 2026
Will CMS RADV audit results for PY2018 result in material Medicare clawbacks (>$50M) for Molina by Q3 2026?Prediction: 28%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Molina Healthcare lose a major state Medicaid contract (CA/TX/WA/NY) in 2026?Prediction: 14%